Political analysts say President Chen Shui-bian (
But, the analysts point out, the key to winning the election next March lies in how well the economy performs in the final few months leading up to the vote.
"Normally, it is the opposition party's strategy to criticize the government, to offer a vision for the future, an idealistic appeal and to urge reform," said Hu Wen-hui (胡文輝), a senior political columnist.
PHOTO: GEORGE TSRONG, TAIPEI TIMES
"All governing parties in the world, on the other hand, appeal to preserve the status quo. They stress stability above everything and remind the public to be grateful for the stability and identify with the government's long-term efforts," Hu said.
But, said Hu, Taiwan's political situation is not normal.
"Taiwan, however, is probably the only democratic country in the world where the reverse holds true. Right now the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is inciting people to support reform. Meanwhile the opposing pan-blue camp of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People First Party (PFP) are proposing to maintain the status quo -- or even a step further, to return to the past with a strong nostalgia for the old dictatorship."
Hu pointed out that the presidential election campaign had already started last April when KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
In the past six months, Chen Shui-bian has been playing catch up. He's proposed referendums, legislative reform, a new Constitution, singing the tune of reform and making the DPP look like the opposition party, Hu said.
The pan-blue camp, on the other hand, has been acting like a traditional governing party, unable to propose a new agenda.
Instead, they have been urging the public to reminisce, to indulge in remembering two dictators and they have not been offering any concrete vision for the future.
"All campaign appeals have been linked to the past and had nothing to do with the future," Hu said.
Agenda-setting is the major battlefield of an election campaign, said Chen Sun-shan (陳淞山), a senior political analyst and commissioner of the Civil Service Protection and Training Commission.
Before the transfer of power in 2000, the DPP -- without a strong party mechanism and lacking support from both political and military circles -- was good at running the campaign with various word games, flyers and brochures. In addition, Chen Shui-bian's campaign team was considered the very best in dishing out an exciting and refreshing agenda.
"A-bian is still leading the election agenda. In domestic affairs, he appeals for reform, in contrast to the KMT-PFP's status quo," said Chen Sun-shan, referring to the president by his nickname.
"And in cross-strait relations, A-bian is using national security as a reason to appeal for the status quo, in contrast to the KMT-PFP's calls for further opening up to China," he said.
"A-bian's way obviously represents the mainstream of Taiwanese people and it also satisfies the international interests, which are headed by the US. He can take up a good spot in the open debate and gain a strategic advantage," he said.
Chen Sun-shan, who once served as the chief of Chen Shui-bian's staff when A-bian was still a legislator, said that the KMT-PFP alliance seems to think they have an advantage with the Taiwanese electorate structure -- and with the DPP's poor record during its first three years in power. As a result, the pan-blue camp thought they could do nothing and still win the election, Chen Sun-shan said.
"These two parties did nothing to prove that they had reformed themselves in the past three years. And right now they cannot deliver any concrete policies to draw a future for Taiwan," Chen Sun-shan said.
"Even their fundamental ideologies are not close to mainstream public opinion, and this is where A-bian's team can work to lead the public and media on issues," Chen Sun-shan said.
Ku Chung-hwa (
"They also presented themselves in a conservative light and the support shown in the polls has fallen greatly," Ku said.
"Lien Chan even used the word `boring' to respond to Chen Shui-bian's constitutional-reform appeal. It only shows how arrogant the KMT is, and how inaccessible Lien is. This also shows that the pan-blue camp ignores the impact these appeals have on the grassroots public," Ku said.
Ku said that whether Chen Shui-bian can realize his reform goals and promises was another matter.
What counts is that Chen Shui-bian's election agenda is very clear, he is good at presenting his issues in the media, and he is aggressively interacting with the public. As a result, the polls have slowly come to show that he is enjoying the same level of support as the Lien-Soong ticket, Ku said.
Recent figures have also shown that the economy is recovering. So the crucial point for the presidential election next March lies with the governing party's performance in the final few months," Ku said.
"If the economy shows growth early next year, it would change everything and turns the campaign to A-bian's advantage," Ku said. "This would be A-bian's best move, and Lien-Soong's least favorite one."
A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck off the coast of Hualien County in eastern Taiwan at 7pm yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The epicenter of the temblor was at sea, about 69.9km south of Hualien County Hall, at a depth of 30.9km, it said. There were no immediate reports of damage resulting from the quake. The earthquake’s intensity, which gauges the actual effect of a temblor, was highest in Taitung County’s Changbin Township (長濱), where it measured 5 on Taiwan’s seven-tier intensity scale. The quake also measured an intensity of 4 in Hualien, Nantou, Chiayi, Yunlin, Changhua and Miaoli counties, as well as
Taiwan is to have nine extended holidays next year, led by a nine-day Lunar New Year break, the Cabinet announced yesterday. The nine-day Lunar New Year holiday next year matches the length of this year’s holiday, which featured six extended holidays. The increase in extended holidays is due to the Act on the Implementation of Commemorative and Festival Holidays (紀念日及節日實施條例), which was passed early last month with support from the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party. Under the new act, the day before Lunar New Year’s Eve is also a national holiday, and Labor Day would no longer be limited
COMMITMENTS: The company had a relatively low renewable ratio at 56 percent and did not have any goal to achieve 100 percent renewable energy, the report said Pegatron Corp ranked the lowest among five major final assembly suppliers in progressing toward Apple Inc’s commitment to be 100 percent carbon neutral by 2030, a Greenpeace East Asia report said yesterday. While Apple has set the goal of using 100 percent renewable energy across its entire business, supply chain and product lifecycle by 2030, carbon emissions from electronics manufacturing are rising globally due to increased energy consumption, it said. Given that carbon emissions from its supply chain accounted for more than half of its total emissions last year, Greenpeace East Asia evaluated the green transition performance of Apple’s five largest final
The first tropical storm of the year in the western North Pacific, Wutip (蝴蝶), has formed over the South China Sea and is expected to move toward Hainan Island off southern China, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said today. The agency said a tropical depression over waters near the Paracel and Zhongsha islands strengthened into a tropical storm this morning. The storm had maximum sustained winds near its center of 64.8kph, with peak gusts reaching 90kph, it said. Winds at Beaufort scale level 7 — ranging from 50kph to 61.5kph — extended up to 80km from the center, it added. Forecaster Kuan Hsin-ping
RSS