The US-led coalition of three nations invading Iraq gives Taiwan a good lesson about the necessity and importance of an effective air defense system as a strategic deterrent, a retired lieutenant-general of the air force said yesterday.
"Like Iraq, Taiwan is weak in its missile defense. So far, the military has not acquired the capabilities to defend against China's missiles. This is our greatest worry," said retired Lieutenant-General Kao Chung-yuan (
"China learned a lot from the Gulf War in 1991. It has developed accordingly the doctrine of fighting a regional war under high-tech conditions. The doctrine focuses on the use of high-tech weapons such as guided missiles with Taiwan as the apparent target," Kao said in a telephone interview yesterday.
"China will use similar attack modes against Taiwan. In the first wave of attacks, China will launch missiles of various kinds against major infrastructure on the island, aiming to paralyze our command, control and communications capabilities," he said. Kao said that the military should consider developing offensive capabilities to deter China against taking any military action against the nation.
"Offense is the best defense. If we have strategic deterrents, we will force China to restrain itself. Such defense is much more useful than the development of anti-ballistic missile capabilities," he said.
An active military officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, agreed that because it has nuclear weapons, China is not likely to become a target for attack by the US.
"The ongoing US strike on Iraq indicates that Iraq might not have weapons of mass destruction as alleged by the US. But North Korea and China are apparently in possession of such weapons," the officer said.
Supporters for strategic deterrents argue that offensive systems cost less. Their basis for comparison is the missile defense capabilities that the military has been developing for several years. Rough estimates by the military show that the money the military is to spend on developing missile-defense capabilities to counter's China ballistic missiles will be over nine times what China would spend. Skeptics of the theory highlight, however, the possibility of incurring preemptive strikes from China.
Regarless of which side is more persuasive, Taiwan is not likely to develop strategic weapons without an agreement with the US, a common understanding since the 1987 escape to the US of a key defense official in charge of a nuclear weapons development project and the year Japan and the US signed an "Agreement Concerning Japanese Participation in Research for the Strategic Defense Initiative."
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