Tue, Dec 10, 2002 page3

• Lee Teng-hui baffles critics after TSU losses

  POWER PLAYS While many academics and media outlets are claiming that the former president has lost his political pull, others say that his fighting days are far from over

  • By Lin Mei-Chun / STAFF REPORTER
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  President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) leading role in the pan-green camp is assured after the TSU's poor performance in this weekend's polls, but political commentators believe that former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) influence, though weakened, will continue to play a role in the nation's affairs.

  They said Lee's influence may have declined, but the ex-president will continue to play a role on the political stage because Chen cannot afford to lose the backing from Lee's staunch pro-Taiwan supporters.

  "Chen will dominate the Chen-Lee relationship [following the election,] but that does not mean that Lee won't have any political weight. He never fails to attract the media's attention with his pro-Taiwan opinions. It is impossible for Chen to overlook Lee's influence in the media," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), a political science professor at Soochow University.

  Over the past two years, the public has sometimes been confused about who is the real head of the state.While Chen may be the president, he sometimes appears to be overshadowed by his predecessor, and some of the DPP's policies have been adjusted to garner Lee's approval.

  The 80-year-old Lee has been a popular figure since last summer, when he re-entered politics by founding the TSU.

  The small pro-Taiwan group -- which has helped Chen hold onto power in the face of the pro-unification opposition -- has since served as Lee's political stage.

  Advocating his "Taiwan-first" principle with a strong sense of mission, Lee is tremendously popular with a core group of followers. Lee has openly criticized the DPP government's China policy and the reform proposals introduced to overhaul the debt-laden grassroots financial cooperatives.

  Amid the government's backpedaling on the reforms of the grassroots institutions -- which triggered a massive street demonstration -- Lee intensified the public's dissatisfaction with the DPP by attacking the administration, saying it was run by "inexperienced officials" who know nothing but how to run election campaigns.

  The relationship between Lee and Chen often evokes the power plays between a king and his first minister.

  When the two leaders appeared together to stump for DPP Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) in Kaohsiung last Tuesday, Chen grabbed the microphone away from Lee to whip up the crowd.

  Insiders in the DPP said that Lee may have to stay quiet for a while because "Chen's leading role in the pan-green force was consolidated in view of the election results."

  "The situation is that Lee needs Chen more than Chen needs Lee. Lee's political resources have largely dwindled, leaving him with no choice but to form an alliance with Chen," said a DPP official who requested anonymity.

  It has been widely reported since the election that Lee's popularity has faded, given the TSU's lackluster performance in the campaign.

  The TSU nominated seven candidates for city councilors each in Taipei and Kaohsiung cities, but only two were elected in Kaohsiung. The party obtained only 3.7 percent of the votes in the capital, and 4.55 percent in Kaohsiung.

  Although political academics agreed with the DPP official that Chen will become the top leader in the pan-green alliance after the election, they said Lee will continue to make his voice heard.

  Chiu Hei-yuan (瞿海源), a sociology professor at National Taiwan University said, "Lee's intention to influence politics will continue, and it is very difficult for Chen to turn down Lee's requests."

  Analysts also pointed out it is unfair to conclude that Lee's popularity has died down because of a defeat in a single election, and what's more, "the election for the city council does not change the political atmosphere nationwide," Sheng said.

  Last December, the four-month-old TSU grabbed 13 seats in the 225-member legislature in its first campaign, thanks to Lee's support.

  The distribution of the votes indicated that Lee's outspoken style and his pro-Taiwan speeches appealed more to residents in the south and in rural areas.

  TSU officials don't think that Lee's influence has faded because they realize that city dwellers were never the party's major supporters.

  Other factors such as the party's weak candidates and its unclear direction also attributed to the party's failure in this election.
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