Mon, Dec 09, 2002 page3

• Ma expected to go for Chen's job

  ASPIRATIONS After his resounding victory on Saturday, Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou is ready to embark on a bid for president in the 2004 election, political observers say

  • By Lin Chieh-Yu / STAFF REPORTER
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  The results of Saturday's election show Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has proven himself ready for the next presidential election and is the top competitor for President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) job, political observers said yesterday.

  "The result affects the political domains of the opposition KMT, PFP and New Party," said political observer Hu Wen-hui (胡文輝), adding that the KMT and New Party will have closer ties, while the PFP will lose influence.

  Hu said Ma, who defeated his DPP opponent Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) by about 380,000 votes, is a hot candidate to represent the pan-blue camp in the next presidential election.

  He added that KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), who is widely believed to have benefitted from the the election result, will have more space to maneuver, but PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) faces a crisis of being marginalized.

  Asked during a press conference after being declared winner of the mayoral race if he will run for the presidency in 2004, Ma replied, "So far, I have no idea."

  The mayor's vague reply leaves him room to make a bid for the presidency.

  "Ma is in a good position to wait and see," Hu said.

  He added that if Lien and Soong remain deadlocked over who will represent the blue camp in the next election, impatient pan-blue supporters will turn to Ma.

  He said it is also likely that Lien would nominate Ma as his deputy or keep his own title as KMT chairman and allow Ma to run for the presidency.

  Hu said that Soong is in a more difficult situation, as he now faces both Lien and Ma as competitors hoping to represent the blue camp in the next election.

  Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), a political observer and editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine, said the mayoral election has changed the leadership of the pan-blue camp, as the monopoly on decision-making by a few political leaders is being overwhelmed by the influence of public opinion.

  As the leader of the largest opposition party, Lien is supposed to be the No. 1 leader of the pan-blue camp, but his low popularity -- described by Chin as a commodity in a market whose expiry date has passed -- and his losing more than 2 million votes to Soong in the last presidential election has given Soong more influence.

  "But the mayoral election has changed the situation with grassroots opinion controlling the outcome," Chin said.

  Chin took the PFP's switching of its support to KMT Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英) as an example.

  He said the PFP was forced to give up its support for independent Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Chang Po-ya (張博雅) when polls showed that it was Huang who was more likely to win.

  Chin said public opinion forced the PFP to alter its stance in Taipei as well.

  PFP Legislator Liu Wen-hsiung (劉文雄) criticized Ma as being too proud to show his appreciation for the PFP's support just two days before the election. But the day after Liu made the comments, calls flooded into PFP headquarters to protest against the lawmaker's remarks and Soong was forced to kneel down to show support for Ma and clarify that the party has no intention of dividing the pan-blue camp.

  Chin said the New Party won five seats on Taipei City Council and will be able to influence blue-camp negotiations.

  He said if the New Party reunites with the KMT, Soong will be marginalized and his influence in the camp will be further reduced.

  As for the pan-green camp, the victory in the Kaohsiung race shows the depth of DPP support in southern Taiwan.

  However, Hu warned that the party received only 35 percent of the vote in the Taipei mayoral election, matching the proportion of DPP supporters in the capital.

  He said the ruling party has lost the support of non-partisans, who supported the DPP during Chen's tenure as Taipei mayor, adding that the result is related to the poor performance of the central government.

  He said that Chen will have to make progress in governing if he wants to run for a second term as president. Chen will have to avoid blunders such as the flip-flops on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant and the reform of farmers' and fishermen's credit cooperatives -- mistakes that Hu said have seriously damaged the government's credibility.

  Meanwhile, the pro-independence TSU's failure to take advantage of former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) support -- with none of its candidates winning in the Taipei city councilors elections and winning only two seats in Kaohsiung -- indicates Lee's influence is declining.

  Taipei Society Chairman Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華) said the TSU must learn from the New Party's example if it is to have any influence in the next presidential election.

  "Lee's overexposure has already reduced his influence and the TSU needs to immediately start a restructuring plan or the party will dissolve as soon as Lee retires from politics," Ku said.
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