Mon, Dec 09, 2002 page2

• DPP must address economy: analysts

  LAST CHANCE While Hsieh's victory in Kaohsiung was a boon for the government, it will have to revive the economy if it wants to win in 2004, the observers said

  • By Ko Shu-Ling / STAFF REPORTER
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  Although Premier Yu Shyi-kun may be relieved that the DPP held onto the southern stronghold of Kaohsiung in Saturday's mayoral elections, political observers warned yesterday that Taiwan might see another transfer of power if the DPP-led government fails to effectively improve the nation's sluggish economy.

  "The DPP's victory in the Kaohsiung mayoral election definitely lifted some pressure off the government," said Wu Tung-yeh (吳東野), a political scientist at National Chengchi University. "But if it continues to let the economy deteriorate, it may be running the risk of losing power in the 2004 presidential election."

  Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), a political observer and editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine, agreed that voters were most concerned about things that effect their everyday lives.

  "Frankly speaking, what the public cares about is simple: whether they have enough food to eat and whether they have a steady job," Chin said. "As it's the government's ultimate responsibility to allow people to lead a good life, it makes sense that the government will lose public support if it doesn't."

  Chin, however, said that he does not expect further heated confrontation between the Taipei City Government and the central government.

  "Although I expect Taipei City to complain about the central government's policies, it doesn't have the right to dictate the formulation [of policies], while the legislature does," Chin said.

  Since the DPP swept into power in May 2000, the Taipei City Government has locked horns with the central government over various issues, including the dredging of tributaries of the Keelung River and water rationing during a drought earlier this year.

  Commenting on the Taipei mayoral election, Wu said that the election sent out a clear message to the ruling party that it cannot afford to ignore.

  "If the party cannot improve the economy before the presidential election in 2004, voters will use their ballots to show their discontent and the result is obvious," Wu said.

  In Saturday's elections, Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the KMT won 873,102 votes, or 64.11 percent of the total, while his DPP and sole challenger Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) garnered 488,811 votes, or 35.89 percent.

  In Kaohsiung, Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) of the DPP amassed 386,384 votes, or 50.04 percent of the total vote, while the KMT's Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英) received 361,546 votes, or 46.82 percent.

  The KMT kept control of the Taipei City Council, winning 20 of the 52 seats with 38 percent of the votes, and the DPP won 17 seats with 33 percent.

  The PFP won eight seats with 15 percent of the votes, the New Party won five seats and independents two.

  In the Kaohsiung City Council elections, the DPP took 14 of the 44 seats and the TSU two seats. The KMT took 12 seats and the PFP seven seats. Independent candidates took the remaining nine seats.

  The Taipei election, however, is not all that bleak for the DPP, Wu added, because the party saw its core voter base consolidated despite the economic downturn.

  "The party should be happy that Lee amassed over 488,000 votes, although this was 200,000 fewer than those garnered by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) when he was running for re-election in 1998," Wu said.

  Chen received 688,072 votes, or 45.91 percent of the total, in 1998 when he lost the race to Ma, who got 766,377 votes, or 51.13 percent of the total, in a three-way race.

  The then-New Party runner Wang Chien-shien (王建火宣) garnered more than 44,000 ballots.

  While the opposition camp painted Saturday's elections as a vote of confidence on the Chen administration, Wu refused to bill the DPP's expected failure in Taipei as an indication of a lack of confidence in Chen.

  "The party's loss has a lot to do with the public's displeasure with the economic climate," Wu said. "Although I don't think that the mayoral elections should be seen as a test-run for the presidential election, they may indeed serve as an important indicator."

  Chin attributed Ma's victory to the mainstream media's one-sided adulation, instead of his achievements.

  "Ma's sex appeal and genteel nature makes him a favorite of the media and a formidable competitor," Chin said. "His campaign strategy, in which Ma refused to respond to the criticism leveled by Lee, also worked well."

  Although Hsieh won the Kaohsiung election, Wu said that he did not expect him to win by such a narrow margin, pointing out the negative impact mudslinging and defamation had on Hsieh's bid.

  "If it wasn't for the allegation of his involvement in the Zanadau case and the integration of the pan-blue camp, he could have garnered more votes," Wu said.
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