Sat, Dec 07, 2002 page3

• DPP sets bar low prior to election

  THE BRIGHT SIDE As the party prepares for a thumping in Taipei, it is looking for small victories by focusing on trying to win more votes than in the previous campaign

  • By Crystal Hsu / STAFF REPORTER
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  With Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) appearing set to win re-election today, the DPP considers it a victory if its flag-bearer can maintain the party's 1998 showing -- a goal pundits say would take a miracle to realize.

  The party, however, may take solace should Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) be re-elected in what is has been a volatile and unpredictable campaign.

  With the economy in the doldrums, DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) has had difficulty mustering support on a par with the DPP's performances in past campaigns.

  The party received 688,072, or 45.91 percent, of the total votes in 1998 when then-Taipei mayor Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) lost the race to Ma, who amassed 766,377, or 51.13 percent, of the vote in a three-way race.

  The more than 44,000 ballots garnered by then-New Party runner Wang Chien-shien (王建火宣) are expected to flow to the Ma camp in light of the fringe party's political stance.

  Together, Ma and Wang led Chen by 122,757 votes, a gap the DPP has sought to narrow after recognizing that unseating Ma appears to be impossible.

  Polls show the incumbent enjoys a two-digit lead over his DPP and sole challenger.

  "In my view, the party is triumphant if it manages to narrow the discrepancy today," DPP lawmaker Chiu Tai-san (邱太三) said.

  "It is unlikely Lee can outperform Chen, a superstar in the DPP and the nation as a whole," he said.

  Indeed, the Taipei mayoral race is so lopsided that almost all DPP officials shy away from commenting on the race, unwilling to dampen the morale of the Lee campaign.

  "As chief of the campaign staff, I cannot be pessimistic," DPP Legislator Hong Chi-chang (洪奇昌) said.

  Similarly, Deputy DPP Secretary-General Michael You (游盈隆) said no one can tell the final result before all the ballots have been tallied.

  He likened the campaign to the story of the tortoise and the hare, with Ma the swift but arrogant rabbit and Lee the slow but diligent turtle who wins the race in the end.

  "It is a legend but is not utterly impossible," You said.

  Chiu estimates Ma's margin of victory will exceed 150,000 votes.

  Academics paint the forecast as overly conservative.

  "Chances are Ma will beat his rival by at least 200,000 votes," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), a political science instructor at Soochow University.

  The economic downturn is also expected to have a negative impact on Lee's showing, despite the election being a municipal one rather than national.

  TSU lawmaker Chen Cheng-lung (程振隆) said traditional DPP supporters who are unemployed will likely shy away from voting or defect to the KMT.

  Regardless, the DPP stands a fair chance of retaining control of Kaohsiung City, where polls show its incumbent is running neck and neck with the KMT's Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英).

  Past elections show many KMT supporters don't bother to cast ballots.

  "If all goes well, Hsieh will win re-election by less than 10,000 votes," said DPP Legislator Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁).

  Four years ago, Hsieh surprisingly unseated then-KMT mayor Wu Den-yi (吳敦義) with 4,565 ballots, or less than 1 percent of the vote, thanks to Wu's smear campaign commercials that triggered a voter revolt days before the election.
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