As firecrackers exploded everywhere in Taipei and Kaohsiung last night as part of the final campaign rallies before today's mayoral polls in the two cities, scholars cautioned that the election result may serve as a wake-up call for the ruling DPP.
David Huang (黃偉峰), associate research fellow of the Academia Sinica, said that while today's local election won't affect the balance of power in the central government, it may serve as a way for constituents to show their level of confidence in the performance of the DPP-ruled government.
PHOTO: CHIANG YING-YING, TAIPEI TIMES
"If both the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral seats were lost to the opposition parties, although I don't think that would be the case, the result would send a warning signal to the ruling party," Huang said.
PHOTO: CHU YU-PING, TAIPEI TIMES
The stagnated Taiwanese economy and escalating unemployment rate, coupled with the ruling party's muddled policy toward Taiwan's giant neighbor, China, have brought President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) unprecedented headaches.
The latest opinion poll showed that Chen's approval ratings have dwindled to 31 percent, a record low point for the president since his inauguration in 2000.
PHOTO: CHIANG YING-YING, TAIPEI TIMES
If the DPP fails in today's mid-term test, Chen would be compelled to make policy adjustments in accordance with the wishes of the people to ensure voters would swing back to support him during the 2004 presidential election race, Huang said.
PHOTO: SEAN CHAO, TAIPEI TIMES
While various opinion polls have indicated that Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) from the KMT was quite far ahead of his DPP challenger, Lee Ying-yuan (李應元), the race in the southern port city of Kaohsiung has been a much closer one.
Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) has been fighting a vehement battle with his KMT challenger, Huang Jun-yang (黃俊英) amid many allegations of corruption.
PHOTO: CHIANG YING-YING, TAIPEI TIMES
"It's very hard to predict the outcome in Kaohsiung," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), political scientist from So-chow University.
Both Huang and Sheng joined Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, for a panel discussion on today's election with visiting foreign journalists and scholars yesterday afternoon.
Given the keen participation in the current race by other major political heavyweights, ranging from President Chen, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) -- all of them presidential hopefuls -- the result of today's election may set the tone for the 2004 presidential election, analysts said.
"One can argue that the 2004 presidential race virtually begins next Monday," Sheng said.
But analysts also cautioned that various factors might come into play to affect the result of the 2004 presidential race -- regardless of the result of today's election. These include Chen's volatile approval rate among constituents and the balance of power within the "pan-blue" camp.
"Although Chen's latest approval rating is around 31 percent, it's not unlikely that he'll be able to turn the tide in his favor," Sheng said.
It is yet to be seen whether the "pan blue" parties can coordinate among themselves to come up with a joint ticket -- for president and vice president -- during the 2004 race, analysts said.
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