Thu, Oct 24, 2002 page3

• China's new chiefs have big dreams for Taiwan

  REVELATION? According to files that were smuggled out of China, Hu Jintao believes he will soon be dealing with a Taiwanese president who is more friendly toward Beijing

  • By Charles Snyder / STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
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  China's new leaders, who are slated to take over next year, are convinced that Taiwan will eventually be unified with the mainland, either by military force or as a result of increased economic ties according to high-level Communist Party documents smuggled out of China.

  They also believe President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) is a temporary figure who will be replaced by people more amenable toward Beijing, the documents said.

  The documents also show that the current Chinese leadership felt that a near-term war with Taiwan was possible last August, when Chen made his "one-side-one-country" remark on Aug. 3, but that Chen's subsequent moderating statements and Washington's failure to back Chen diffused the crisis.

  The documents, which are transcripts of internal investigation reports used to evaluate the suitability of the future leaders, were used as a basis for English and Chinese books that will be published in New York next month.

  Taipei Times has obtained an advanced copy of the English version, China's New Rulers, The Secret Files, by Andrew Nathan and Bruce Gilley, which will be published on Nov. 8, just as the 16th Communist Party Congress gets underway in China.

  The book is based on the Chinese book, Disidai (第四代, The Fourth Generation), which will be published next month under the pseudonym, Zong Hairen, who smuggled the documents out and compiled them.

  Zong, who is believed to live in the US, said that well-placed insiders gave him the files.

  "Chen Shui-bian is temporary," the book quotes Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), who is likely to replace President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) next March, as saying. This, the book says, is why the new leadership is in no hurry to deal with Chen.

  Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅), the chief of the party's Organization Department, which produced the files on which the books are based, and who will probably be elevated to the Politburo's Standing Committee next month, is also dismissive of Chen.

  "[Chen] has the power but no idea of how to use it; he is not a skillful politician," Zeng is quoted as saying. "The Taiwanese support him for the time being only out of a certain emotionality, but emotion has to be sustained for a long time. For now, Chen is relying on the economic prosperity built up under the KMT to survive [and cannot provide continuing prosperity]. So the Taiwanese people's emotions toward him cannot be sustained for long."

  The incoming Chinese leadership may be counting on the US to abandon Taiwan one day, the documents show. Zeng is quoted as viewing Taiwan as a "bargaining chip" in America's strategy.

  "When the US believes that improvement in US-China relations suits its interest, Taiwan becomes unimportant. When the US believes that conflict between the two sides is necessary, the Taiwan question is place on the White House's table. The Americans never consider Taiwan's interests, only their own," he says.

  Hu calls Washington "the root of the delay in solving the [Taiwan] problem ... the Chinese people on the two sides of the Strait can properly handle this family matter."

  While the new leaders' thoughts on a military takeover of Taiwan are not dealt with extensively in the files, since they are security matters, Hu says that retention of the military option is the key to peaceful reunification. The report does, however, show that many new leaders believe China's strategy should rely on China's economic growth as a magnet for eventual reunification.

  Li Ruihuan (李瑞環), who is to become the No. 2 man under Hu, and who will replace Li Peng (李鵬) as head of the National People's Congress, stresses the economic angle, according to the book.

  "Regardless of how much the Taiwan authorities refuse to accept the one-China principle, people's contacts across the Taiwan Strait have developed into a tide, and economic and cultural transactions are constantly increasing. No one can deny this.

  As our comprehensive national strength increases, the Taiwan independence path can only get narrower and narrower," Li is quoted as saying.

  Several members of the new leadership believe Beijing "should play down official talks and concentrate on building up economic and social exchanges to entice Taipei to the bargaining table. These include leaders most knowledgeable about Taiwan, former Taiwan Affairs Office director Wang Zhaoguo and former Taiwan Affairs Office official, Wang Gang.

  The new leaders "do not see the development of democracy in Taiwan as a real obstacle to reunification," the book says. It quotes Hu as saying, "Taiwan's affairs should be decided by the Taiwanese people," but he adds, "This does not mean they can hold a referendum and then declare independence."
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