Chinese President Jiang Zemin's (
"We may not know exactly how they will arrange their leadership, but they have definitely already resolved their differences and are ready to announce the result during the coming 16th National Congress. Otherwise Jiang would not be going to Texas as President [George W.] Bush's guest," said Andy Chang (
Chang made the remark at a seminar held by an association of cross-strait reporters yesterday during which three China analysts were invited to comment on the Chinese Communist Party's 16th National Congress, which is scheduled for early next month.
Lin Cheng-yi (
Series of events
But rather than viewing the congress in isolation, Lin suggested observers link it to the China-US summit on Oct. 25 and the APEC leaders meeting in Mexico on Oct. 25.
"This series of events will provide insight for us because it might reveal clues about China's leadership as well as US attitudes toward Taiwan," Lin said.
Lin predicts that both Jiang and Bush will not make any surprise comments during their meeting.
"China will not change its bottom-line policy toward the US and Taiwan, but will use more agile expressions to make outsiders feel Hu Jintao (
Meanwhile, Chang said Jiang's influence should last at least another two years until Taiwan's 2004 presidential election.
"Look at the public statements made by Chinese authorities. All of them are in line with Jiang's core circle of advisers. There is no doubt that Jiang will retain his influence by pushing his own theory of the "Three Represents" into the party charter to make sure he takes control of party ideology, which will give his name a place in history," Chang said.
Jiang's influence
To make sure his ideology is realized, Chang also predicted that Jiang's advocate, Zeng Qinghong (
Another academic, Yang Yang Kai-hwang (
Status quo
"The third generation of Chinese leadership could maintain the lead in Taiwan affairs after they hand over power to the fourth generation of leaders," Yang said.
Yang believes that Hu will not alter Taiwan policy once he takes over and believes that personnel familiar with cross-strait affairs will likely stay in their positions.
More specifically, Yang predicted that Jiang will stay on as head of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, while the group's deputy head, Qian Qichen (
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