Mon, Aug 12, 2002 page3

• Analysts say TSU will continue to be a stage for Lee

  • By Lin Chieh-yu / STAFF REPORTER
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  Political observers said yesterday that the TSU would continue to serve as a stage for former President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), especially by keeping Lee's redefinition of cross-strait ties as being "special state-to-state" in nature as its guiding principle.

  They also said that the TSU would support President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in his 2004 re-election campaign and would help the pan-green camp gain 60 percent of the seats in the legislature.

  The TSU, which celebrated its one year anniversary yesterday, is often viewed by academics as one of two parties located at the two ends of the political spectrum. The other is the New Party.

  Political analysts often consider the two parties to be "guided by one man" (一人政黨) in its ideology -- in the case of the TSU, that man is Lee.

  The biggest challenge for the young party, then, will be stepping out from Lee's influence and transcending the limitations imposed by its staunch pro-independence stance to become an enduring party.

  "Obviously, if the TSU wants to become a long-lasting party, it cannot depends solely on former president Lee," said Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), the editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly. "However, in the short term, it must hold tight to Lee's `Taiwanization' and `localization' stands."

  Chin said that strategically the TSU may embrace Annie Lee (李安妮), Lee's daughter, as the symbolic successor of the former president's remaining political capital in order to consolidate its voter base.

  He added that after the DPP moves toward the center, the TSU can take over the DPP's pro-independence voters and its social issues-oriented policy. Chin said doing so would give the TSU a voter base of 20 percent.

  He also said that cooperation between the two parties would continue at least through the next presidential election.

  "Prior to the presidential race in 2004, the two parties will have to cooperate. And together they should stand a chance of getting President Chen reelected and of garnering 60 percent of the votes in the legislative election that year to achieve an overwhelming majority in the legislature," Chin said. "But thereafter, up to 2008, their relations will become tense."

  Though they are both seen as having several similarities, political commentators said the TSU and the New Party still have some fundamental differences.

  While the support rate of the staunchly pro-unification New Party has sunk over the years, the TSU's pro-independence and "Taiwan first" platforms better reflect mainstream public opinion.

  "Therefore, there is still room for the TSU to expand its voter base," said Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華), president of the Taipei Society.

  "The key is how the TSU can set forth a vision and tell the people of Taiwan how the nation's politics and economics will develop when localization consciousness is strengthened," he said. "Only when the TSU can do this will more voters cast their votes for TSU candidates."

  Ku pointed out that Lee is expected to soon lay out his vision for Taiwan's future. If concrete strategies for its implementation can be mapped out, the cooperation between the TSU and DPP would appeal to voters and enable the pan-green camp to rise above political infighting, Ku said.
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