The Taiwan issue is not expected to play a critical role during China's transfer of power at the upcoming 16th Party Congress this fall, analysts in Taiwan said yesterday.
In the runup to the congress, rumors are swirling that President Jiang Zemin (
The latest issue of the US weekly magazine Business Week said Jiang wants more time at the top to "oversee his policies of strengthening China's relations with the rest of the world, bringing Taiwan closer to the mainland, and integrating China into the global economy."
Analysts in Taiwan, however, only partially agreed with that point of view.
Chen Yu-chun (
"The Taiwan issue never plays an important role in China's transfer of leadership," Chen said.
He added that, while President Chen Shui-bian (
Instead, Chen Yu-chun said the various internal factions of the CCP would be the key factor in determining whether Jiang steps down or not.
"Some of Jiang's supporters in the party worry that if Jiang resigns from all his current posts, his likely successor, Hu Jintao (
This point of view was echoed by George Tsai (
"If Jiang decided to hang on to power, the Taiwan issue would be used as a justification for that decision," Tsai said.
"It is not necessary that Jiang's staying in power will bring Taiwan closer to China."
Aiming at explaining the correlation between the stability of cross-strait relations and Chinese leadership, Tsai said that, regardless whether Hu or Jiang serves as president and CCP chief, "cross-strait relations would not change much."
"Hu is a moderate person who will focus on Chinese economic affairs if he is in power. The Taiwan issue would not become a focus in his agenda," Tsai said.
He told the Taipei Times that, no matter who is in power after the congress, it is clear that Chinese leaders will prefer maintaining the "dynamic status quo" in cross-strait relations.
Although the Taiwan issue may not be crucial in the transfer of leadership, the issue might be a reason for Jiang to hold on to power, Hsu Yung-ming (
He cited an evaluation report released by the Mainland Affairs Council that said that Jiang is being pressured to show some achievements during his tenure to ensure himself a top place in Chinese history books, alongside Mao Zedong (毛澤東) and Deng, and cross-strait relations might be one area for Jiang to make his mark.
In order to bring Taiwan closer to China, Hsu predicated that Jiang might stay on as military chief for several more years and hand Hu the posts of president and CCP general secretary.
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