Mon, Apr 29, 2002 page3

• Chen hopes to outrun his competitors in 2004 race

  HEAD START While the president is laying the groundwork for his re-election bid, his potential opponents are suffering from infighting and have yet to get organized

  • By Lin Chieh-yu / STAFF REPORTER
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  It was 4:30am, a Saturday morning along the trails of Alishan in Chiayi County. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) led the pack up the path to the Chushan viewing platform, where, after a few moments, the hikers could watch the light of the new day arrive. The winded journalists, about a dozen in number, struggled to keep pace.

  "Are you tired? Am I walking too fast?" Chen turned back to ask the reporters picking up the rear.

  But what Chen seemed to be asking was, "Can you keep up with me?"

  Over the past two years, Chen has been working out daily and keeping in shape, losing some 3kg since becoming president.

  Now Chen has set his sights on re-election and is working on getting his party into shape. His opponents, meanwhile, appear to be struggling to keep up.

  On the night before the April 13 hike up Alishan, Chen told reporters for the first time that he was willing to lead the DPP. "When I take the chairmanship in the future, I will surely find time to keep exercising," he said.

  A week later, an extraordinary meeting of the DPP's National Congress voted to revise the party's charter to make the president the DPP chairman when the party is in power.

  The revision will put a great deal of the party's decision-making into Chen's hands -- and is a critically important step as he prepares for re-election.

  Pavinh the way

  "Two-thirds of President Chen's path to the re-election was paved when secretary-general to the president Yu Shyi-kun took the premiership and Chen Shih-meng (陳師孟) succeeded Yu to become the secretary-general to the president on Feb. 1," said Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), editor in chief of Contemporary magazine.

  "That pretty much settles personnel arrangements inside the Presidential Office and the Cabinet. All that was left were the arrangements inside the party."

  After Chen becomes DPP chairman later this year, Chin said, "A-bian will control all three power structures, and Chen's re-election team can be said to be officially in position."

  Meanwhile, the pan-blue camp remains in a state of chaos.

  Some KMT members hope Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), legislative speaker, and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) will represent the KMT ticket for president and vice president, respectively.

  Other KMT members hope party Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) will cooperate somehow with PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) in the 2004 presidential contest.

  A decision on these issues dividing the "pan-blue camp is nowhere in sight at the moment," Chin said.

  "The KMT and PFP ostensibly cooperate, but under the surface the tension between their members is becoming more evident."

  An early start

  Chen Sung-shan (陳淞山), who served in Chen Shui-bian's office during his years as a lawmaker, also noted that the president -- true to fashion -- is warming up early for the race ahead.

  Chen noted that after Chen Shui-bian's defeat in his re-election bid for Taipei mayor in 1998, he immediately started preparing for the 2000 presidential campaign.

  In early 1999, Chen Shui-bian began pushing for changes to the DPP's policy on China and independence for Taiwan, saying a more ambiguous interpretation of the party's pro-independence platform should be allowed. He also began to argue that cross-strait economic and trade policies should be more open.

  "Then, with the help of party elders -- former chairman Huang Hsin-chieh (黃信介) and then chairman Lin I-hsiung (林義雄) -- Chen integrated the DPP's factions and successfully [formed a consensus] that he would be the party's one and only presidential candidate," Chen said.

  The future president's next step was to form a campaign team composed of powerful members of the DPP's factions.

  "By mid-1999, A-bian's team was in position, even though few at that time were optimistic he could win the campaign," Chen said.

  Will history repeat?

  And like today, the KMT was in chaos. Lien Chan was the handpicked successor of then president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), angering former Taiwan provincial governor James Soong, whose ambitions were to hold the top job.

  "Now, it's as if history will repeat itself," Chen said. "While A-bian has prepared himself for the race, the pan-blue camp is caught up with questions such as `Will Lien and Soong team up?,' `Who should run for the president and who should run for the vice president?' and `How will the two parties cooperate?'"

  But the former Chen aide noted that the presidential race is still two years away, and while the president has the leg up now, anything could happen before polling day in 2004.

  But for now, A-bian has at least gained the advantage by limbering up for the race, while his opponents have yet to put on their track suits.

  "Even so, this does not guarantee A-bian a sure victory," Chen said, noting the 1998 Taipei City mayoral race as an example.

  In that contest, morning jogger Ma didn't join the race until six months before election day, managing to upset an "incumbent who had prepared for more than three-and-a-half years and enjoyed an approval rating of more than 80 percent."
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