Taipei Times: A major part of your paper ``September 11th, Globalization and the End of the High-Trust Era'' addresses the importance of the economic dimension of security. Can you elaborate on that?
Steven Clemons: I think the source of instability in the world is more of an economic nature and unless you figure out how to synthesize security and economics, you won't solve the problem. Bush's security team was put in place immediately, [but] compared with the Clinton administration, nobody is playing a dominant economic role in Bush's administration. This is a real problem.
PHOTO: CHIANG YING-YING, TAIPEI TIMES
Globalization depends upon a high-trust environment. If you remove that [high-trust environment], you end up more cynical, security-obsessed, dark vision, which I think is reinforced by President Bush's domestic needs.
This is an administration that wants to define itself by security, not by economics.
One thing that is most disappointing is the collaboration of our allies. What's amazing is that they all want to report things they have done in the war against terrorism. That's fine. But it sounds to me extremely like the vassals paying tribute to the king. The loyalty oath process in essence increases the fragility of the relationship much more.
It does seem to me that the collaboration we've achieved is real collaboration ... but what is missing is a more optimistic and fundamental part of the picture.
None of the international exercises [like the WTO negotiation in Doha and the APEC summit] yielded anything fundamentally different in terms of policy that would have been the case before Sept. 11.
This seems to me a good opportunity to put up the positive and optimistic collaboration. As a realist, I see the need for a much constructive kind of optimistic engagement.
TT: How do you then see the Bush administration's presence in Asia?
Clemons: America doesn't know what it is doing in Asia ... The lack of a fundamental economic design and an economic engagement plan for the region [in the Bush Administration] is disconcerting when you realize the biggest issue facing Southeast Asia is what Japan is doing with its currency. No major economies in Asia can afford another round of currency devaluation during a period of global slowdown. And the growth in the American economy is not robust enough to take the heat off of Asian economies.
Even in Taiwan, everybody is thanking President Bush for his soft-spot for Taiwan. But focusing only on the security dimension is a real mistake. The economics has got to continue to be stable because essentially it is in these areas of economic friction that could fundamentally drive a different kind of conflict to go on.
Today, the scary thing to me is that Bush and [National Security Adviser Condoleezza] Rice see this as a time where American power is rising, so [they] have to push our assets and presence. And this has created an activism in foreign policy, which is very interesting ... [but] focusing on security and not taking seriously enough the economic dimension of security ensures [that] the cycle of violence will continue.
I think Bush is genuine about going after the terrorists, but essentially I think the administration is failing to do what needs to be done to deal with the driving forces that caused Sept. 11.
Every nation has some realization of the constraints on them and of the challenges. But the Americans feel no constraints. We walk through the world as if we can totally do whatever we want. It's part of the American leadership's ego.
That is why the whole issue about unilateralism gets so much attention because it aggravates tension. That's why I believe the US should never give up leadership, but it has to use collaboration as much as it uses the opportunity to do something.
TT: Is this perhaps why you favor the withdrawal of US troops from Okinawa?
Clemons: I am not in favor of removing the military, but of a mid-term [plan] saying we have to change the structure and whatever we leave has to look more secure than what we had before.
But the Third Marine Division has become a catalyst of nationalism in Okinawa and Japan. If we are proactive and create a new deal, remove the Third Marine Division, make friends with average Japanese again, empower Japanese a bit more within the relationship, maintain the naval and air force assets on the long-term basis, collaborate more with the Japanese ... you [will] have a lot stronger, more secure collaboration than you do today.
TT: Many people think that US-Taiwan relations are getting stronger under the Bush and Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) administrations. Can you comment on US-China-Taiwan relations?
Clemons: The new administration here is carving out a very interesting identity ... No matter what you think of Lee Teng-hui (
The issues of legitimacy of Taiwan as a democracy are now at the grassroots level, rather than being manipulated by a few guys in the foreign diplomacy establishment. So the marketing side of what is achieved when the DPP came in was extremely important.
And there is a lot of over gaming both [on the part] of China and Taiwan over the agreements with the US, the Shanghai Communique, the Taiwan Relations Act and the issue of selling arms.
Taiwan is trying to define itself by finding out how far it can go, and sometimes the US gives it cover to take an action that causes friction with the PRC over legitimacy. But I don't think it's like children fighting across the Strait and silly. I see it's fundamentally about the legitimacy of the state.
The point is the fundamental issues of self-determination can't be orchestrated. Maybe the US is a little bit too involved. Maybe if we were less involved, not that we would threaten your security ... but not be the ultimate arbiter, then both sides would be more responsible in how they handle the issues rather than playing off the US and manipulating vis-a-vis the US.
I think Washington is captured. A part of Washington is captured by corporate interests that want to do business in China [and] they are pro-engagement. I believe it is a matter to cultivate the better side of China than completely encircling China because that would certainly bring out the worst side of China's personality.
And the think-tank communities in Washington are captured. A part of them are on China's side, and you have the others that Taiwan funds. This is something that I wish the Taiwanese government would learn -- they need to stop funding. They need to get advocates whom they don't fund.
The Bush people tend to have both ways. People like [Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul] Wolfowitz are more ready to take the harder lines now because China is weaker and do fundamental things that position the US extremely well and send really strong signals regarding the defense of Taiwan. Another side of the administration wants to mix it with engagement, cooperation and collaboration and Bush wants to use both tools.
And I think your president sort of gets that because he's been acting responsibly. He's not playing soft in the terms for talking [between both sides.] You can't be too soft, but the US should not be too involved.
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