Tom Brady has a good chance of becoming the oldest starting quarterback ever to play in the National Football League, according to a consensus reached by sports science experts interviewed by Reuters.
They said that only a serious injury, or lack of motivation, will likely stand in the way of the New England stalwart, who at 39 was to lead the Patriots into battle against the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl today.
Brady has given no hint that he plans to retire any time soon, but he will need to play six more seasons to eclipse Steve DeBerg, who was nearly 45 when he made a start as quarterback for the Falcons in 1998.
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Brady, in his 17th season and the oldest active quarterback in the league, shows no sign of slowing down or skill diminution. Father Time will eventually catch up with him, as it does with everyone, but that moment seems to be some distance away.
Experts said Brady’s on-field situational awareness, allied with a formidable offensive line and a few touches of good fortune, have enabled him to avoid the injuries that have hampered many other quarterbacks.
Brady’s only serious career injury was torn knee ligaments that forced him to miss most of the 2008 season.
“Unless he gets a major injury, [he can continue playing] a lot of years,” Mike Hahn, director of the University of Oregon’s Bowerman Sports Science Clinic, told reporters. “How many is a lot: five-to-seven?”
“Brady has done well to ride the peak performance stage most athletes have from their late 20s to early-mid 30s. His [throwing] form is classic and he’s constantly aware of where he’s at and playing 100 percent within his comfort zone, Hahn said.
“It’s no coincidence he hasn’t been injured more and you’ve got to credit the Patriots for the way they’ve put together a team around him,” he added.
Exercise scientist Matthew Reicher said Brady’s longevity might end up being a “psychological question” rather than a physical one.
He could decide to retire once he feels his motivation waning, even if he is still good enough to remain as a starting quarterback, Reicher said.
“He’s human. At some point eventually he’s going to wake up one day and not feel the same,” said Reicher, the head athletic trainer at the NY Sports Science Lab on Staten Island, New York. “Strength in the arm is the first thing that will slow down.”
Reicher’s colleague, biomechanist Michael Greene, cited an ESPN analysis that examined Brady’s near-perfect throwing mechanics and concluded that he releases the ball at 98kph, significantly faster than most other quarterbacks, and can hit a target the size of a dinner plate 18m away.
The experts also emphasized the importance of injury avoidance, not just in the longevity of a career, but also the quality, citing as an example five-time NFL Most Valuable Player Peyton Manning.
Despite having major neck surgery, Manning played until 39, but his performance declined at the end, especially his throwing strength.
“A huge series of compensations arise after injury,” Hahn said.
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