March Madness is where momentum can turn into "no"mentum, where rolling teams lose wheels, where formulas, theories and analysis fill newsprint and air time.
And it's where the only thing certain is uncertainty.
"here is no formula for assessing whether a team has momentum going into the tournament," CBS Sports college basketball analyst/curmudgeon Billy Packer said. "Anyone who thinks theyUve got a formula or a way to assess that is totally full of it.
"Even more so nowadays, there's really no way to predict which team is going to be able to play well enough to win six games in the NCAA Tournament."
Stanford and Saint Joseph's are both No. 1 seeds. Both have to conjugate their seasons from past perfect to a future tense. The Cardinal (29-1) recovered from its only loss to win three games in the Pacific-10 Conference tournament. The Hawks (27-1) were dismantled by Xavier in their last game.
"The good thing is our season's not over," said Saint Joseph's point guard Jameer Nelson, a leading Player of the Year candidate. "But if we lose again, I have to turn in my uniform, and that will be even more painful. I don't want this feeling again."
History says that it's unlikely Stanford or Saint Joseph's hear "One Shining Moment" in San Antonio's Alamodome on April 5. North Carolina State (in 1974) is the last team to win a national championship with only one loss.
One oft-debated theory is that it's better to lose a game late in the season, as did Stanford and Saint Joseph's. A long winning streak or an undefeated season can produce more negatives and positives once the pressure of the NCAA Tournament is applied.
"It's a unique thing team to team," Missouri coach Quin Snyder said. "Last year, we lost the Big 12 [tournament] championship game and we were flat in the NCAA Tournament.
"Sometimes coaches are saying things when you're winning that the players just aren't hearing. In that situation, a loss can help you get better. It's hard to get better this time of year. You find a few teams each year that do."
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