For Australian sports fans it's a nightmare waiting to happen.
The nation hosts and defends the rugby World Cup and sees either New Zealand or England -- its two traditional rivals in sports -- take away the trophy the Wallabies won four years ago.
PHOTO: AFP
That's how the bookmakers see it, with the All Blacks and the English favored to meet in the Nov. 22 final in Sydney.
The way the tournament pans out, the Wallabies should play the All Blacks in the semifinal and, on current form, New Zealand should be the winner.
The All Blacks won the Bledisloe Cup, including a record 50-21 victory in Sydney in August. Although the Wallabies may have improved since then, New Zealand hasn't lost any of its strength and appears to have peaked at just the right time to regain a World Cup it hasn't won since 1987.
The English hope they are at the same level as when they won the Six Nations Grand Slam in March and beat New Zealand and Australia on the road in June. Just under a year ago, they also crushed South Africa 53-3.
Although those results point to a long overdue triumph for Clive Woodward's team, they know they caught the All Blacks far below top form at the start of their season while the South Africans were in disarray at the end of a long and disappointing European tour in which they also lost to France and Scotland. England and South Africa meet at Perth's Subiaco Oval Oct. 18 in a group match that could have a major bearing on who wins the title.
A South African win would almost certainly mean it tops the group and England would then meet New Zealand in the quarters. The Springboks would have an easier route through the competition, probably meeting France in the semis. But the South Africans have also been rocked by a racial scandal -- one of their pre-World Cup training squad refused to room with a black teammate. They also know that an expected loss to England would mean facing New Zealand in the quarters and almost certainly an early trip home. It's certainly England's best chance of winning the title for the first time.
In fly half Jonny Wilkinson, speedster Jason Robinson among the threequarters and rampaging Lawrence Dallaglio in a vastly experienced back row, they have matchwinners everywhere.
Seemingly unbeatable at Twickenham and in Europe, England will have to win seven matches on the harder Australian playing surfaces which could take their toll on knees and ankles.
Michael Jones, one of New Zealand's all time greats, said he was impressed by England's pack. But he saw weaknesses.
"They've conquered all so far, except the World Cup," the former back row star said. "It is all mental now. The World Cup is [bursts] of 80 minute and it's the team's that are going to maximize every moment during those 80 minutes that will win it.
"England have got the combinations and old heads to do it, if you look at what they've achieved in the past two years.
"However, if any team wants to pinpoint an area of vulnerability ... any rugby observer would identify that, if there's an area you are going to defeat them, it is out wide."
The Australians have a tough opener against Argentina on Friday. The Pumas have a powerful and effective pack but an impressive victory for the Wallabies will send confidence surging through the team that it could, after all, become the first to win back-to-back World Cups.
The familiar names of George Gregan, Stephen Larkham, Joe Roff and Matt Burke are among eight of the title winning lineup from 1999 who are back to try and win it again with new stars such as former rugby league internationals Wendell Sailor and Mat Rogers.
Although back row star Toutai Kefu is out of the World Cup with a fractured shoulder blade, Chris Latham is recovering from pneumonia and Stirling Mortlock from a stomach bug, coach Eddie Jones is convinced he has a very strong starting lineup with plenty of competition for places.
France is a strong candidate having twice been runner up.
Les Bleus are in an easy group with Scotland, Fiji, the United States and Japan and should advance all the way to the semis where it's likely that England or South Africa await.
The French have a standout back row line in Imanol Harinordoquy, Olivier Magne, Serge Betsen and the big problem facing coach Bernard Laporte is which of his mercurial halfbacks to field.
None of the other 15 teams have a realistic chance of winning the title and will measure success by reaching the semis.
Notebook
AP, Sydney, Australia
Australian Rugby Union managing director John O'Neill, head of the organizing union for the 5th World Cup, said expanding the Tri-Nations tournament to include Argentina was a real possibility after 2005.
O'Neill is a director of SANZAR, the umbrella of unions involved in the Tri-Nations series and Super 12 tournament tournaments.
He said SANZAR had received an approach from Argentina to join existing Tri-Nations members Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, but TV broadcasting and other contractual obligations made it impossible until after 2005.
"In an immediate sense it's not economically feasible, but it is something to consider," in the longer term.
O'Neill said SANZAR had an obligation to promote the development of the sport, not only in emerging nations like Argentina but also in traditional rugby countries across the Pacific.
Suggestions for the expansion of the Super 12 provincial competition have included a combined Pacific Island team comprising Tongans, Samoans and Fijians, and a fourth franchise in Australia.
Out to lunch
England coach Clive Woodward showed either short term memory loss or masterful deadpan humor Tuesday when asked Tuesday if new disciplinary rules at the tournament would prevent teams from trying to hurt, or "take out" an opponent.
"I can't believe any team would tactically try to take other players out, it doesn't happen in the modern game," Woodward said. "I can't even envisage it. There's 26 cameras out there -- you just can't get away with those things. You're going to miss the tournament."
It is less than a year since England's vicious clash with South Africa at Twickenham where Woodward's star playmaker Jonny Wilkinson was forced off the field after concerted hits from the Springboks. Woodward has praised the new disciplinary framework in place for this tournament. Players who receive three yellow cards will face a hearing with the expectation that they automatically miss a game.
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