The number-two man in China's Taiwan Affairs Office, Zhou Mingwei (
Zhou's arrival comes in advance of US President George W. Bush's trip to Beijing next month.
The Chinese official arrived after two days of meetings in New York, where he met with US scholars and businessmen and with Chinese-Americans. He will be in Washington until the weekend.
In Washington, he is scheduled to meet with Torkel Patterson, the top Asia aide to National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Assistant Secretary for Asia and Pacific Affairs James Kelly. Beijing has requested, but so far has not secured, a meeting with Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, sources said.
Zhou's visit is the first he has made since he came to Washington last February as part of Beijing's effort to feel out the newly installed Bush administration. It was planned well before the White House announced last week that Bush will visit Beijing in mid-February, but the announcement has added importance to the trip, observers said.
While both Beijing and Washington have been close-mouthed about the visit, some analysts believe Zhou will bring up two specific issues.
One is the sale of diesel submarines to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry officials have warned visiting Americans recently that the sale would spark a setback in bilateral relations and have urged that it be cancelled. While the Bush administration last April pledged to sell up to eight of the diesel-powered submarines, which the US has not produced in a half century, it is still trying to find ways to deliver on the pledge and may present some possibilities next month.
The Bush administration last year abandoned the practice of annual decisions on arms-sales to Taiwan in favor of case-by-case sales, so Zhou will not have the previous April sales decision deadline as a target for discussion. He is, however, expected to vigorously protest US arms sales.
The other issue is a formal commitment from Bush to warn Taiwan against a unilateral declaration of independence. While US officials issued such warnings last year, Beijing reportedly wanted Bush to repeat the warning at the end of his trip to Shanghai last October. Bush refused, but Beijing reportedly still wants him to make the statement.
Zhou's trip is expected to be less incendiary than his previous visit. In his trip last February, he took a hard line, warning about war with Taiwan if Taipei does not move toward reunification expeditiously and saying that "no war" would be the "main benefit" Taiwan would gain from accepting the "one China" principle.
In comments made in New York, Zhou took a "very moderate tone" compared with last year, participants said. He appeared to be seeking to avoid confrontation with the US, in view of Beijing's preoccupation with internal matters, analysts said.
These internal matters include Beijing's preparations for a change in the leadership at this winter's 16th Communist Party Congress. They also include changes required by China's entry into the WTO and continued preparations for hosting the 2008 Olympics.
Zhou is also likely to try to convince Washington to urge Taiwan not to do anything to take advantage of Beijing's preoccupations over the coming year, analysts said.
The Chinese Embassy has released little information about Zhou's visit. "Since his visit last February, great changes have taken place in the relationship between the two sides [of the Taiwan Strait] and in Sino-US relations, so it is a good time for him to come and exchange views with the American side," is all a Chinese Embassy official would say.
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