The impact of the formation of the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and its participation in this year's legislative elections is not having as great an impact on DPP electoral prospects as many had previously anticipated, DPP director of international affairs Wilson Tien (
Tien told a group of foreign reporters visiting Taipei to cover the elections that the party expected to increase its percentage of the popular vote despite the new competition posed by the TSU.
He said the party now expects to gain 35 percent of the vote, up from a high of 32 percent in any previous election.
"They probably do take some from us, but the impact is not as great as we thought," he said.
The low voter turnout expected in Saturday's elections will act as a double-edged sword, he noted. The drop in rural areas will be the result of the fact that the sharp national economic downturn will reduce the amount of money the KMT can use to pay for votes, helping the DPP's fortunes in those areas. In the cities, the drop will be the result of general voter apathy, which should boost DPP prospects there, he said.
He repeated DPP assertions that the party will get a two to three plurality in the popular vote, and would secure 85 seats in the next legislature, with the KMT also getting 85 seats.
The economic slowdown and the political gridlock of the past 20 months should not hurt the DPP, Tien said. He said that party polls show that only 19 percent of the people think the legislature is doing a good job, indicating that they blame the legislature, primarily the KMT, for the problems by resisting President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) budget proposals and other measures.
He also noted that the economic downturn is a worldwide problem. If Taiwan alone were suffering, he said, the DPP would be in trouble. Given the global reach of the problem, "I don't think the economy will be a major factor as voters to make their minds up," he said
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