China's rude behavior and treatment of Taiwan at this year's APEC meeting is likely to benefit the DPP in the Dec. 1 elections, scholars and pundits say.
Former vice president Li Yuan-zu (李元簇), Taiwan's chosen representative to attend this weekend's leaders' summit, was unable to go because Beijing refused to send him an invitation.
In addition, when Minister of Economic Affairs Lin Hsin-yi (
Scholars said that while China's behavior would do little to influence cross-strait relations in the long run, in the short term in would give a boost to the DPP and President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).
A scholar from National Sun Yat-sen University, who refused to be identified, said what Beijing has done in its treatment of Taiwan is to ensure that it will have no one else to deal with but Chen.
That's because Taiwan's frustration with Beijing's refusal to be a good host at APEC translates into more support for the DPP and Chen, the scholar said.
Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), a political science professor at National Chengchi University, said that China has a lesson to learn: It's easier to catch flies with honey than vinegar.
"China's refusal to issue an invitation to Li Yuan-zu upset Taiwan's public," Wu wrote in an editorial last week. "Obviously, its ideology that says victory comes from striking Taiwan down is just pushing itself in the opposite direction of peaceful unification."
Wu Yu-shan (
Wu reasoned that if Beijing accepted Li, Taiwan would have won because it raised the level of representation Taipei would enjoy at APEC.
But with Beijing refusing Li, Chen wins because there's no harm to relations and the DPP gets a lift in the December polls.
And there's plenty of evidence to suggest that China's behavior -- often belligerent and arrogant -- is a crucial factor in Taiwan's year-end elections.
Just before last year's presidential elections, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) warned Taiwanese voters not to elect the "wrong candidate," referring to Chen.
Scholars and experts on cross-strait relations say Chen's victory at the polls was due in part to China's meddling.
Another scholar, who refused to be identified, said that what is more likely to influence cross-strait relations is China's domestic stability, relations between Beijing and Washington and the year-end elections in Taiwan.
"If we review cross-strait relations from this perspective, the APEC incident is just a part of the short-term drama," the scholar said.
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