Mon, Oct 15, 2001 page3

• Chance for cross-strait progress grows

  WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY As reality dawns on Beijing that the DPP administration is here to stay, Chinese decision makers may be taking another look at Chen Shui-bian

  • By Crystal Hsu / STAFF REPORTER
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  President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), though unable to attend the upcoming APEC summit in Shanghai, may yet set foot on Chinese soil later in his term in a bid to break the gridlock across the Taiwan Strait.

  An increasing number of Chinese officials and scholars are finding it increasingly unpalatable to isolate the Chen administration, which remains rather stable despite the parlous state of the economy.

  Though likely to govern without a majority in the legislature after the December polls, the first non-KMT president appears poised to win a second term in 2004, thanks to a divided opposition.

  "A visit by Chen to China, though still a long-shot, is not totally impossible," said a ranking official at Mainland Affairs Council, who requested not to be named. "Some in Beijing have concluded it is time to reciprocate his goodwill" to end the stagnant state of cross-strait ties.

  During the presidential race last year, Chen vowed to emulate late US president Richard Nixon, who despite his vocal criticism of China initiated the campaign to normalize relations with Beijing in the early 1970s.

  Concessions

  To that end, Chen has made a series of concessions, including promises not to declare Taiwanese independence or tinker with the nation's flag or national anthem. On New Year's Eve, he floated the idea of cultural and economic integration as an incremental approach to bridging differences between the two sides.

  Earlier this year, he reiterated his wish to personally take part in the APEC meeting in Shanghai and talk with his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zeming (江澤民) on any subject -- economic or political.

  This and other overtures, however, have failed to move Beijing, which insists Chen accept the "one China" principle before seeking to mend fences. Chen and the DPP are unwilling to concede this point, saying that the 23 million people of Taiwan have the final say on Taiwan's fate.

  "Recently, they have agreed Chen is the best man to discuss cross-strait disputes with," the council official said. "Given his stance on the sovereignty issue, people here will not tie his hands with charges he may sell out Taiwan."

  Chen himself has stressed that as a lawyer by training, he is both pragmatic and flexible when sitting at the negotiating table.

  But Beijing has refused to give serious thought to the suggestion, suspicious of the pro-independence clause enshrined in the DPP charter. Furthermore, it has adopted a united-front policy, using political and economic means to undermine Chen by cultivating his opponents and Taiwanese businessmen.

  Zhang Jialin (章嘉琳), a senior fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, confirmed that some have argued against continued shunning of the DPP government, which has managed to stay popular, especially in southern Taiwan.

  Indeed, many in Taiwan lay the blame for the economic slowdown on the opposition parties, which control a two-thirds majority in the legislature and which have repeatedly quashed Chen's policy initiatives.

  Zhang, a former aide of Wang Daohan (汪道涵), China's top negotiator with Taiwan, attributed the turnabout of Chinese idea brokers in part to a realization that Chen is here to stay as president, whether they like it or not.

  "Chances are high that Chen will be re-elected in 2004, as opposition parties show no sign of patching up their quarrel and mounting a joint bid," Zhang said during a telephone interview.

  The pacifist-sounding rhetoric, though not without challenge, is gaining ground in the competition of ideas in China, the senior China policymaker said.

  US role

  A keen desire by China to curry favor with the US also helps elicit amenable behavior from the country of 1.2 billion people.

  "Eager to integrate into the world, Beijing has a significant interest in being seen to promote regional stability and prosperity in cross-strait relations," said Gerrit Gong, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

  He noted that after Sept. 11, Washington is looking at the world in terms of "if you're not with us, you're against us." Not surprisingly, Beijing wants to be seen as seeking mutually beneficial avenues of cooperation with the US, Gong said, adding that establishing a positive atmosphere with Taipei will serve to solidify that policy.

  Finally, Jiang's planned retirement in March 2003 provides incentives for his would-be successors to treat Taiwan gently.

  Aides close to the Chinese president are dying to score points for their boss so he may be remembered as a great statesman in Chinese history, a Chinese official was quoted as saying.

  "Setting in motion, not necessarily resolving cross-strait relations, is definitely a plus for Jiang and his followers, since the successful bid to host the 2008 Olympic Games is widely considered inadequate," a political scientist from National Sun Yat-sen University said.

  He noted that the economic take-off and the return of Hong Kong and Macao to Chinese rule are generally accredited to the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平).

  The mainland affairs official said that he saw a small window of opportunity for resumption of cross-strait dialogue early next year and that when the two sides mean to talk, no face-saving measure -- such as "one China" -- is needed.

  Hot and cold

  Beijing suspended talks in June 1995 after former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) visited his alma mater Cornell University in the US.

  But in February 1998, China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait sent its Taiwanese counterpart, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), a letter saying without preconditions: "Let's resume exchanges, let's prepare for talks, and let's prepare for the Koo-Wang meetings."

  In October of that year, SEF Chairman Koo Chen-fu (辜振甫) made a high-profile, ice-breaking trip across the Strait. His Chinese counterpart Wang had promised to visit Taiwan the following year but cancelled the journey after Lee defined cross-strait relations as special state-to-state in nature.

  "If Beijing fails to grab the chance next spring, no dialogue may take place before the Chinese Communist Party finishes its leadership shuffle in 2003 or even later," the official said.
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