With the year-end elections approaching, political commentators say the result of the elections will not only determine the political balance of power, but will also serve as an early barometer of the popularity of the potential candidates in the 2004 presidential election.
Putting aside former President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) -- President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), PFP chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and Taipei mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) are emerging as the four most likely presidential candidates in the present political landscape.
In the run-up to the elections of legislators and county magistrates in December, these party leaders are exerting an all-out effort to campaign for their candidates, hoping to win advantageous positions at the legislature and to increase their influence in their regions. But in the opinion of political observers, the result of the elections will also provide an indication of the extent of the continuing influence of Lee. It will also provide an idea of how Chen, Soong, Lien and Ma will do in the 2004 election race.
Since September, 78-year-old Lee -- the former KMT chairman who was lately dismissed by the party -- has been seen touring around the country to stump for the candidates of the TSU. In this way he can fight for the continuation of his ideological belief -- the pro-Taiwan and localization policies. Without having to worry about his own political future, Lee now criticizes the country's political situation to his heart's content.
Lee Yung-chih (李永熾), a history professor at National Taiwan University and a political observer said that the former president is a strategically savvy politician, who knows how to calculate the best time to launch his tirades and when to cease.
"Regardless of the performance of TSU candidates, Lee has to create a stage for himself to influence Taiwan's political development," said the historian.
Lien Chan, on the other hand, holds the majority at the legislature and he has the most resources. Analysts said he lost his advantage with ill-planned strategies in the presidential election -- by seeking support from the no-longer-influential KMT force and by breaking away from Lee.
After the presidential election, political observers said Lien's popularity among Taiwanese further declined after his cooperation with Soong, a mainlander and a KMT maverick.
"Lien's current task is to consolidate the KMT forces. And if the KMT loses in this election, it will spell doom for Lien's political future," said Lee.
Ma, who is the most popular KMT politician and won the most votes in the election for the party's central committee members, is believed to be a rising superstar in the KMT.
Because the public thinks Ma is bound to the political territory of Taipei, the KMT has tried to break this perception by letting Ma stump for KMT candidates in the south and central parts of Taiwan.
Chen I-shen (
In the competition for support from mainlanders, Soong has not yet lost, said Chen -- because compared to Ma, Soong is much more politically sophisticated, and Soong's PFP has provided him with a solid base.
After losing the presidential election race last year, Soong has been desperately seeking to find a stage for himself. That is why he formed the alliance with the KMT and looked for ways to cooperate with Chen in exchange for being made premier after the year-end elections. But both these strategies have seemed to fail.
Analysts say it's apparent that Soong exchanged his aim of becoming premier for his being elected as a candidate for the position of legislator-at-large.
As it stands, Chen is without doubt the most popular star in the DPP. But in the past year the ruling DPP has failed to stabilize the political situation.
Commentators say whether Chen will be re-elected depends on how he can improve the political and economic quandary, and the most essential task for Chen is to find the correct partners to create a majority alliance to control the congress.
For the time being, Lee appears to be Chen's only possible partner.
"According to the observations, the most likely competitors in the next presidential election [2004] will be the either Chen against Ma, or Chen against Soong," Lee predicted.
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