Wed, Sep 05, 2001 page3

• Presidential aide says no decision made on premier

  KEY APPOINTMENT President Chen Shui-bian was rumored to have offered James Soong the position of premier in a secret July meeting, but a close aide to Chen says that offer was never made

  • By Lin Chieh-yu / STAFF REPORTER
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  A close aide to President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) yesterday said that the details of a secret "Bian-Soong meeting" in July, where Chen was rumored to have asked James Soong (宋楚瑜) to take the post of premier after the December legislative election, were highly classified and a matter only for the two men themselves.

  But the aide emphasized that the president has made clear many times in internal meetings that, "I have never thought about appointing Soong to be premier."

  "The Presidential Office has been conducting a long-term assessment of the post-election situation and issues such as the reshuffling of the Cabinet," the aide told the Taipei Times. "But there are too many variables at this stage," the aide said.

  "For example, the number of seats that the TSU is going to take, the question of whether the DPP will gain enough seats to become the majority party and the KMT's internal strife. The president really has made no conclusive decision as yet, much less promised anyone a particular post after the elections," the aide said.

  Ambiguous answers

  At a recent tea party with members of the media, Chen responded ambiguously to reporters' questions about the Bian-Soong meeting.

  When asked whether the meeting, which took place on Yangmingshan in late July, had addressed the issue of "promising Soong the right to form a new Cabinet after the election," the president demurred, saying, "I have a poor memory. I have forgotten some things."

  Analysts offer two interpretations of the president's "forgetfulness."

  The first is that the president wants to retain command of a high strategic position and, through extending goodwill, show that he and his team do not have any predetermined stance in order to avoid prejudicing any coalition scenario after the elections.

  The second is that he hopes to sow mutual distrust among the opposition alliance by sending out a political trial balloon and intensify tension over electoral cooperation between the KMT, PFP and New Party.

  "Another interpretation," said Chin Heng-hei (金恆煒), editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly, "is that A-bian wants to follow the example set by former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) whereby Lee nominated Hau Pei-tsun (郝柏村) as premier thereby causing deep rifts in the KMT's conservative camp, and then using the DPP's power to force Hau to resign."

  The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has made precisely that assessment. The TSU believes that Chen intends to "unite first and then launch the struggle" (先聯合後鬥爭). By giving the premiership to Soong, Chen could create internal friction within the opposition alliance, and then put an end to Soong's political life with an all-out effort from the executive system.

  "The purpose of the TSU's establishment is to help the DPP stabilize the Legislative Yuan. But if President Chen picks James Soong as premier, we would re-evaluate our strategy after the election," said TSU Secretary-General Su Chin-chiang (蘇進強).

  Various interpretations

  Commenting on the various interpretations of the president's motives, the president's aide said: "Asking James Soong to form a Cabinet? President A-Bian would not even think about it."

  He cited three reasons. First, Soong has much more influence than did Hau. "Soong is extremely skillful in sophisticated power struggles, and is very well aware of how the governmental system operates, even more so than DPP officials. What's more, Soong still enjoys, to this day, an approval rate in opinion polls that is comparable to that of Chen. We wouldn't necessarily have an advantage over him in a popularity contest or a war in the media.

  "Second, Soong was devastated after losing the presidential election. Even though he managed to pull himself together and form the PFP, the party's direction and influence are at a critical juncture. The stage on which Soong can perform is limited. Were he to become premier, it probably wouldn't be more than a few months before all the political parties in the Legislative Yuan all knelt down before him," the aide said.

  Third, the aide added, even if the Presidential Office has sufficient confidence in its skills and tactics to bring down Soong, it wouldn't be until early next year before Soong could take the premiership. Ousting a "Premier Soong," however, would take at least two years -- it could not be done before early 2004. "This would give Soong just the momentum he would need to run in the next presidential election," the aide said.

  Trial balloon

  It is clear to the president, the aide said, that the trial balloon of "James Soong being willing to serve as premier" was floated by none other than Soong himself. This is also why he declared the "collapse" of cooperation with the KMT immediately after his meeting with KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) on Aug. 23.

  "So, instead of saying that President Chen purposely raised the issue of the premiership to sow mistrust between Lien and Soong, I would say that the PFP has made a pragmatic shift in its mentality and wants to be the ruling party's chief executor instead of the number two in the opposition," the aide stressed.

  "It is simply that President Chen saw through Soong's ambitions and put on a show for him accordingly," the aide said.
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