He came in a distant third in last year's presidential election. A new political group is threatening to take votes from his party in the year-end polls. His pact with James Soong (宋楚瑜) appears near collapse.
Still, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
"We shall return," the Panglossian party leader told KMT congress members yesterday. "In four years' time at the latest."
Before reclaiming the presidency from the DPP in 2004, the 107-year-old party must first maintain a plurality -- if not a majority -- in the legislature after the December polls. And the race four months away will make or break a party that has fought hard to appear unnerved by the imminent exodus of members disappointed by the estrangement of former party chairman Lee Teng-hui (李登輝).
"If the KMT outperforms rival parties in the legislative polls and is able to take key counties and cities, the specter of a rift will dissipate," said former Kaohsiung mayor Wu Den-yih (吳敦義), a KMT heavyweight.
"Failing that, the party must brace for a revolt that will not only foil its planned comeback but also threaten its viability."
To head off the crisis, the KMT has made unity its top plank for the ongoing national congress.
In addition, the party plans to capitalize on the sputtering economy and paint the DPP government as incapable of pulling the country out of its economic woes.
"The bleak economic picture indeed creates an opportunity for the KMT to win back the voters," said Chu Hsin-ming (朱新民), a political scientist from National Chengchih University. "That explains why the party has launched a series of TV campaigns claiming only the KMT can turn the economy around."
Wu, who seeks a legislative seat from Nantou, said the party has failed to mount an effective campaign thus far. "With a well-planned strategy, the party stands a good chance of grabbing 85 legislative seats," Wu said. "Unfortunately, I have not yet seen a sound plan taking shape, as evidenced in Taipei County, where the party was unable to field a candidate until last week."
Wu was referring to the Taipei County commissioner's race.
The KMT and People First Party had agreed to field a candidate together, but the arrangement fell apart after their preferred choice refused to accept the nomination.
Seeking to pool strength with the PFP, the KMT has hesitated to wrap up its nominating process for the year-end elections, as the two camps compete for roughly the same group of voters.
"Continued posturing and no action will turn the odds increasingly against the opposition alliance, as DPP aspirants have long ago hit the campaign trail," Wu said.
The question of what to do about Lee poses another challenge for the KMT, of which the former president remains a member.
Lee has lent his support to a new group of pro-Taiwan politicians that promise to back the DPP after the year-end legislative elections.
In several interviews, Lee has faulted the KMT for abandoning his "Taiwan first" policies that were popular with the public.
In defiance of KMT rules, Lee has promised to stump for legislative candidates from the new political party, called the Taiwan Solidarity Union. Although displeased, the KMT has avoided confronting Lee, as he enjoys extensive support among grassroots supporters, particularly in the south.
"The so-called `Lee way' never existed," said KMT lawmaker Chu Fong-chi (朱鳳芝), repeating a standard party line in addressing Lee's drift toward the DPP.
"The KMT has always built its policies around the teachings of founding father Dr Sun Yat-sen (孫中山)," Chu said.
Aware that Lee supporters identify more with the DPP than the KMT, the party has increasingly become more pro-China. "The KMT can never out-compete the DPP if it makes localization its top appeal for the year-end elections," said John Chang (章孝嚴), former KMT secretary-general and foreign minister.
Chang, who is eyeing a legislative seat from the southern district of Taipei City, said it was disunity rather than the party's failure to "localize" that cost the KMT the presidency last year.
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