Wed, May 30, 2001 page3

• China staying reticent

  Critics have said Chen Shui-bian's reluctance to accept the `one China' principle has prevented dialogue across the Taiwan Strait. But in the second part of an interview with `Taipei Times' reporter Crystal Hsu, Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman Lin Chong-pin attributes teh stalemate to domestic uncertainty in China and a tougher US stance toward the communist regime. Lin says when the dust clears, cross-strait dialogue may soon take place

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  Taipei Times: You've said domestic factors, more than anything else, shape Beijing's cross-strait policy. How does the picture look now?

  Lin Chong-pin (林中斌): Domestically, there's a lot of uncertainty in China. Economic prospects are not bad. But social unrest is growing, as the number of unauthorized demonstrations increases each year. Political leaders do not feel comfortable because they need to arrange who will take various positions before the 16th Party Congress in October 2002. So far there is no sign of that.

  In the diplomatic realm, relations with Washington are the most important for China and bilateral ties are not yet clear after the change of power in the White House. Before Sino-US relations become clearer, Beijing will be less willing to talk to Taipei. Hopefully, when President George W. Bush visits [China] in October, the two countries will work out a mutually acceptable mode of interaction. I not saying I am forgiving Beijing for not talking to us. What I'm trying to say is that I understand why China is reluctant to talk.

  TT: Local scholars have said it is impossible for Chinese leaders to soften on the "one China" principle, because doing so may cost them their leadership. Do you agree?

  Lin: That is not the key. That's a play on words. People here are too busy, they do not study history and they do not like to do research.

  We must not underestimate the wisdom of Beijing's leaders. They are, I quote my former professor Henry Kissinger, the "most cold-blooded analysts of world politics." They are not stupid or crazy. They know what is good for them. They like to give the impression of going crazy to exact more concessions from rivals.

  Look at recent developments. They have exercised amazing restraint. Take former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) trip to Japan for example. They stopped escalation right before Lee's return. Take the arms sales as another example. Beijing lodged complaints only in a very ceremonious way. And look at the stopover in the US by President Chen. Beijing only issued some expected protests. Nothing more.

  History teems with instances where Beijing has dramatically changed its behavior and shown accommodation. In March 1996, when Washington dispatched two aircraft carrier groups into the Strait, Beijing cried foul at first but soon became quiet -- a strange quietness. Another example happened about the time of presidential election last year. Before the vote, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) said "wait and see" in a godfatherly style of intimidation. China's semi-official think tank even used the word war if candidate Chen became president Chen. But puzzling quietness ensued after Chen won the election.

  TT: Is this restraint linked to Beijing's bid to join the WTO and host the 2008 Olympic Games?

  Lin: That's only part of it. They have a lot of things at stake if they take up military adventurism. The bottom line is their own economic development -- the Olympics, the PNTR, WTO, and so on. Military adventurism will impair China's own national interests. That is why I think we should remain firm, continue to convey goodwill, and prepare for talks, because times may come when cross-strait relations will change [for the better].

  TT: Do you think Beijing may take the initiative and ask Taiwan for dialogue after the year-end elections?

  Lin: It's possible. The election outcome may modify Beijing's behavior. By that time, Beijing and Washington will have probably formed mutually acceptable interaction. If the ruling DPP wins greater control of the legislature, Beijing will have more incentives in talking to the administration. If not, it will be a different story.

  Nobody can predict the election outcome. We don't hear the silent majority in our society. The media show only part of public opinion. That's why every time there's an election, nine times out of 10, scholars will be surprised, including Beijing.

  Still, I think it is in Beijing's interests to talk to us before it's too late. Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) is scheduled to retire by March 2003. Many of his followers who are hopeful of keeping their political careers alive, are eager to get credit for Jiang's work. Since they can't get in the domestic domain, they would like to make some breakthrough in cross-strait relations. Setting in motion, not resolving, cross-strait relations is enough of an achievement for Jiang and his followers.
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