Fresh from their 11-day standoff over a midair crash, the US and China may be headed for worse bumps over arms sales to Taiwan, Chinese and US experts said on Thursday.
President Bush's decision on which arms requests he will grant is set to be disclosed to a visiting team from Taiwan on or about April 24 at the end of an annual process driven by US law.
Taiwan has requested its most potent package yet, including four destroyers equipped with the Aegis combat system, diesel-electric submarines and an advanced Patriot anti-missile defense known as PAC-3, according to US congressional staff.
Despite strong Chinese objections, the administration appeared to be headed for a major package -- minus the Aegis -- even before the April 1 collision of a Navy EP-3E Aries II reconnaissance plane and a Chinese F-8 interceptor highlighted US-Chinese rivalry in East Asia and the Pacific.
Anger in Congress over the crew's 11-day detention after an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island is boosting pressure on Bush to take a harder line on the highly charged weapons issue.
Senator John McCain of Arizona, an Armed Services panel member who challenged Bush for the Republican presidential nomination and could do so again in 2004, said the belated freeing of the 24 US crew members had done nothing to bury doubts over China's commitment to "international norms of behavior."
"We must avoid at all costs giving Chinese leaders the impression they will profit by challenging America's global responsibilities," he said in a statement Wednesday night.
Ronald Montaperto, academic dean of the Defense Department's Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, said lawmakers would read the incident as showing that Taiwan is in "even more danger than we thought -- and therefore we should give them a really robust package."
But both he and Harvey Feldman, a retired State Department China-Taiwan expert and a former US ambassador to the UN, predicted Bush would stop short of transferring the Aegis, the focus of China's current concern.
Taiwan is also seeking four Kidd-class destroyers as a possible stepping stone to Aegis-equipped Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
Montaperto predicted Bush would authorize the Kidd-class ships, which were built for the late shah of Iran. Never delivered after the shah's fall, they could be supplied almost immediately, unlike the Aegis ships, which could take eight or more years to build and put into service.
Taiwan is also seeking up to 70 Boeing AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, HARM anti-radiation missiles and eight to 12 Lockheed Martin P-3 maritime search and anti-submarine aircraft.
Under Section 3 (b) of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the US is committed to supplying weapons "in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability."
Beijing has singled out as a particularly egregious affront to its sovereignty the Aegis system, which might provide the basis for a shield against China's short-range ballistic missile buildup aimed at buttressing threats to take Taiwan by force if necessary.
"If the US sells Aegis it would trigger a very harsh reaction," said Shulong Chu, an expert on China-US ties at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, in Beijing.
Chu, a visiting fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said China would retaliate with a "large increase" of missiles aimed at Taiwan.
Beijing would also halt non-proliferation talks, suspend military-to-military ties and might stop coordinating with Washington on North Korea and other issues, Chu said in an e-mail reply to Reuters.
"Airspace is just a small sovereignty matter," he said of the unauthorized emergency landing on Hainan that became a sticking point in the 11 days of the Hainan standoff. "Taiwan is the biggest sovereignty matter to the Chinese," he said.
TYPHOON: The storm’s path indicates a high possibility of Krathon making landfall in Pingtung County, depending on when the storm turns north, the CWA said Typhoon Krathon is strengthening and is more likely to make landfall in Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said in a forecast released yesterday afternoon. As of 2pm yesterday, the CWA’s updated sea warning for Krathon showed that the storm was about 430km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point. It was moving in west-northwest at 9kph, with maximum sustained winds of 119kph and gusts of up to 155kph, CWA data showed. Krathon is expected to move further west before turning north tomorrow, CWA forecaster Wu Wan-hua (伍婉華) said. The CWA’s latest forecast and other countries’ projections of the storm’s path indicate a higher
SLOW-MOVING STORM: The typhoon has started moving north, but at a very slow pace, adding uncertainty to the extent of its impact on the nation Work and classes have been canceled across the nation today because of Typhoon Krathon, with residents in the south advised to brace for winds that could reach force 17 on the Beaufort scale as the Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecast that the storm would make landfall there. Force 17 wind with speeds of 56.1 to 61.2 meters per second, the highest number on the Beaufort scale, rarely occur and could cause serious damage. Krathon could be the second typhoon to land in southwestern Taiwan, following typhoon Elsie in 1996, CWA records showed. As of 8pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 180km
TYPHOON DAY: Taitung, Pingtung, Tainan, Chiayi, Hualien and Kaohsiung canceled work and classes today. The storm is to start moving north this afternoon The outer rim of Typhoon Krathon made landfall in Taitung County and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島) at about noon yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, adding that the eye of the storm was expected to hit land tomorrow. The CWA at 2:30pm yesterday issued a land alert for Krathon after issuing a sea alert on Sunday. It also expanded the scope of the sea alert to include waters north of Taiwan Strait, in addition to its south, from the Bashi Channel to the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島). As of 6pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 160km south of
STILL DANGEROUS: The typhoon was expected to weaken, but it would still maintain its structure, with high winds and heavy rain, the weather agency said One person had died amid heavy winds and rain brought by Typhoon Krathon, while 70 were injured and two people were unaccounted for, the Central Emergency Operation Center said yesterday, while work and classes have been canceled nationwide today for the second day. The Hualien County Fire Department said that a man in his 70s had fallen to his death at about 11am on Tuesday while trimming a tree at his home in Shoufeng Township (壽豐). Meanwhile, the Yunlin County Fire Department received a report of a person falling into the sea at about 1pm on Tuesday, but had to suspend search-and-rescue
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