Wed, Mar 28, 2001 page3

• AEGIS sale unlikely, US analyst says

  DEFENSE A former US state department official reasoned it is unlikely Washington will sell Taiwan the advanced destroyers, or it will see its relations with China ruined

  • By Charles Snyder / STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
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  The sale of AEGIS-equipped destroyers would be a "quantum jump" above anything the US has sold to Taiwan in the past, and could lead to a downgrading of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, says John H. Holdridge, an assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs under former president Ronald Reagan.

  While not saying directly that the sale would violate the 1982 Sino-American communique that calls for an eventual phasing out of US arms sales to Taiwan, Holdridge, who was instrumental in writing the communique, indicated he felt that the sale would be too much for Beijing to swallow.

  "I think that prudence would dictate that we wouldn't go to the point of giving [Beijing] something that would in fact be inflammatory and cause the relationship to be in a great state of predicament," he told the Taipei Times in an interview at the end of Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen's (錢其琛) visit to Washington last week.

  The 1982 communique, which was at the center of the debate over the possible AEGIS sale during Qian's visit, commits Washington to agree that "its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years ... and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution."

  However, that pledge hinged on China's promise to seek a peaceful settlement with Taiwan, and said "the two governments will make every effort to adopt measures and create conditions conducive to the thorough settlement of this issue."

  Many people in Washington believe that the recent and continuing missile buildup by China threatening Taiwan violates this communique, and provides a justification for the US to sell such systems as the AEGIS-equipped destroyers.

  Holdridge, who was assistant secretary of state from 1981 to 1983, concedes that the Chinese buildup "affects the degree to which we can add quantity and quality" and "could be something tipping things off the edge of the table."

  But he says that Taiwan is not under an "immediate threat" from China, and that China cannot yet launch a full-scale attack.

  The AEGIS sale "would be a quantum jump, well beyond what we've ever done before," Holdridge said.

  He compared it to the time in the early 1980s when Reagan proposed selling F5G fighter aircraft to Taiwan, but backed off after China protested.

  "We had two direct admonitions from the Chinese," he said. "They told us that they could accept lesser types of aircraft like the F5EF, but they could not accept a quantum jump to the F5G.

  "I think with this quantum jump situation right now, going way beyond the confines of everything that's ever been done before, well, that might not be acceptable to certain people in the Chinese power structure," he said.

  "[Washington and Beijing] have kind of accepted a situation whereby if the balance of power is not overturned in the Taiwan Strait or in that area, you could have a little more leeway to do what you want, " he noted.

  If Washington sold the four AEGIS-equipped vessels Taiwan seeks, "I don't think [China] would break off diplomatic relations, but they might downgrade them," he said.

  While not predicting which way the Bush administration will go on the AEGIS sale, Holdridge did predict that Taiwan will get the four Kidd-class destroyers from Washington, "which the US navy doesn't want anyway ... I think China would stand still for that."
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