The government should seek to clarify its China policy despite partisan hassles, because the lack of consensus could push Washington to work more closely with Beijing to ensure stability across the Taiwan Strait, a US analyst said in Taipei yesterday.
"In Taipei, greater domestic political clarity is needed," Gerrit Gong told the Taipei Roundtable forum, co-sponsored by Chinatrust Commercial Bank and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a private think tank based in Washington DC.
Gong, a specialist in East Asian affairs, said he understood that the ruling DPP holds a minority of seats in the legislature and that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) is having difficulty forging a consensus on the sovereignty issue.
Still, he prodded Taipei and Beijing to sit down and seek to resolve their differences through peaceful talks. "The PRC is more interested in dialogue than most people here believe."
The visiting scholar said US President George W. Bush would need about a year to orient his administration and its policy approach, with early events setting important tones and pointers.
Key events shaping Beijing-Washington-Taipei ties, Gong said, include the upcoming UN Human Rights Commission, Taiwan's annual request for defensive arms sales and China's and Taiwan's accession to the WTO.
But he predicted that the US will not depart from its "one China" policy. Bush's foreign policy team, composed of policy advisers and strategists with Cold War experience, favors stronger US military action and presence in the world, as evidenced in the recent US bombing of Iraq, Gong added.
In addition to the Middle East, he said, the Bush administration will focus on four potential regional conflicts, all in Asia: the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, Indonesia and India and Pakistan.
Defending the Chen administration, Kau Ying-mao (高英茂), senior advisor of the National Security Council, said he doubted Beijing is sincere in approaching the negotiation table.
Kau noted that since taking office last May, Chen has made important concessions, but Chinese authorities have insisted he accept the "one China" precondition before pursuing cross-strait dialogue.
"The PRC, if indeed interested in having talks, can set the venue, and the two sides can talk soon," Kau said.
But Gong forecast that Beijing may drop its "wait and see" tactics toward Taiwan in the lead-up to the Chinese Communist Party's 16th party congress in 2002.
"Then Chinese leaders may feel compelled toward more direct action if they calculate that a `wait and see' approach is no longer sufficient."
Lin Bih-jaw (
"The Chen administration is seeking very hard to maintain stability to the point of sacrificing clarity," Lin said.
"It takes two to tango," Lin added.
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