Research has revealed that the average period between dramatic movements of the Chelungpu Fault (
Scientists say that, while they remain unable to predict the next quake, this information should shed more light on the seismic activity that regularly affects Taiwan.
Scientists are seeking to establish a pattern of motion for the Chelungpu Fault, the fault which caused the devastating 921 earthquake in 1999.
PHOTO: CHIU YU-TZU
They have discovered evidence of recent activity and the average period between dramatic movements of the fault.
"We cannot predict when the next huge earthquake caused by the movement of the fault will occur. By studying records we have obtained from three trenches, however, we have discovered that the period between the fault's regular movements is only between 100 to 300 years," Chen Wen-shan (陳文山), an associate professor at National Taiwan University, said at an outdoor press conference at Taiwan Power Company's Wufeng transformer station (台電霧峰變電所) last Thursday.
Scientists say that in the last 400 years the fault has caused at least five large earthquakes.
Scientists believe that if people can view irregular movements of the fault as a common phenomenon and be well-prepared, loss of life and property during natural disasters could be minimized. This belief has led geologists to carry out several experiments in 921 quake-damaged areas.
In Wufeng (
Scientists said they had discovered evidence of ancient earthquakes caused by the movement of the fault at two other trenches located at nearby Chiaojung Elementary School (
The trench project is Taiwan's first collaboration with scientists from the US Geological Survey (USGS). USGS scientists suggested last May, when they investigated areas damaged by the 921 earthquake, that Taiwanese geologists visit the US to observe other trench projects carried out in California.
After visiting several faults, including Calaveras and San Andreas, Taiwanese geologists planned to excavate three trenches in Wufeng last October.
Sung Quocheng (宋國城), a geography professor at National Kaohsiung Normal University, said that according to geological analysis on layers of gravel in the trenches, the Chelungpu Fault caused at least five ancient earthquakes.
Sung said it was as yet not possible to evince when exactly the ancient earthquakes occurred, but noted that the results of their work would be helpful to the government in deciding upon future construction prohibition zones.
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