Tue, Nov 07, 2000 page4

• US strikes a balance with Taiwan arms sales

  STATUS QUO A review of US-Taiwan military relations during the Clinton era shows that while arms sales to Taiwan were held back to appease China, military support and cooperation has remained strong

  • By Nadia Tsao / STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
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  While some have been highly critical of the administration of US President Bill Clinton and his perceived favoritism of Beijing, arms sales to Taiwan have continued during his terms in office, regardless of China's strong disapproval. This approach -- helping Taiwan meet its defensive needs and appease China -- has been termed "balanced engagement."

  While the nature of the triangular relationship between the US and China and Taiwan is sensitive, Clinton's presidency has never developed a dynamic relationship with Taiwan -- except with regard to arms sales.

  

  An F-16 fighter puts on a show at Chiayi air force base.

  FILE PHOTO, TAIPEI TIMES

  For example, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Henry Shelton -- on a recent visit to China -- was given a warning by Chinese Minister of Defense Chi Hao-tien (遲浩田) not to transfer advanced weapon systems to Taiwan. At the same time, however, US officers on active duty were visiting Taiwan to prepare for the next round of arms sales talks scheduled for the spring of 2001.

  Cold war clearout

  Taiwan has received many high-tech weapons from the US during the past decade. A US Congressional Research Service study in October showed that Taiwan has received US$20.6 billion-worth of weapons, mainly from the US, between 1992 to 1999.

  This puts Taiwan second in the world in terms of arms purchases.

  One of the main reasons for the large volume of arms sales to Taiwan was the end of the Cold War. Previously, Taiwan had encountered great difficulties in purchasing new weapons systems, but after 1980 and the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the world market for arms shrunk.

  As European arms industries became more active and began to explore the possibility of selling to Taiwan, US arms manufacturers -- backed by lawmakers on Capitol Hill and a robust lobbying effort -- pushed the administration to sell more arms to Taiwan, which was correctly perceived to be a potentially big buyer of weaponry.

  In addition military exchanges and cooperation between China and the US was dealt a serious blow by the Tiananmen massacre.

  The accumulated affect of these variables led the US administration to approve the sale of F-16s to Taiwan in 1992, while former president George Bush was campaigning for a second term. Taiwan had originally asked for the planes in 1982.

  "This is why Taiwan is ranked second in the world among weapons buyers because we finally got a chance to purchase all the weapons systems we had been requesting for the past decade," said one Taiwanese official who wished to remain anonymous.

  Hard and soft wares

  While Bush helped Taiwan get military hardware, Clinton helped provide "software" -- military support that does not include arms sales. US officials say the idea was initiated by Mike Slack, a former US general counselor in Guangzhou in 1993, when Clinton was sworn in.

  Slack sent a report to the National Security Council and the State Department suggesting the US should explore the possibility of cooperating on software with Taiwan, so that the US could freeze the transfer of hardware and reduce pressure from Beijing, which was insisting on reduced military support for Taiwan.

  Slack's proposal was picked up by the Pentagon after the missile crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 1996.

  However, in the fall of 1997, the key personnel promoting software cooperation -- such as Undersecretary of Defense Walter Slocombe and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Kurt Campbell -- insisted that the US should continue its arms sales to Taiwan as well and simultaneously expand and diversify the military relationship with Taiwan.

  The 1996 missile crisis had a profound impact on US-Taiwan military relations. It was at this point the "US started thinking more seriously about a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait," said one official familiar with events surrounding the crisis.

  "Key people [and think tanks] began to appreciate the idea that there was a real possibility of a US-China confrontation and they needed contingency plans."

  One Clinton official revealed that during the crisis, high-level Taiwanese officials reached a deal with the US government that if Chinese missiles were launched at the island and Taiwan wanted to fire back, it could do so as long as Taiwan notified the US government beforehand.

  Anti-China alliance

  Increased military contacts went hand-in-hand with the sale of weapons to Taiwan. Since the US had sold a large number of advanced weapons, including 150 F-16s to Taiwan, assistance from the US to help Taiwan operate, maintain and integrate its arms supplies became necessary.

  In 1997, Chi Hao-tian's visit to the US actually irritated the anti-China alliance in the US Pentagon because they believed the administration needed a balanced engagement with Taiwan to reduce criticism and ensure its security commitment to Taiwan.

  Even so, officers on active duty were not allowed to visit Taiwan until 1992. Now there are more than 100 visits every year, almost 10 times the number in 1994. Hundreds of military officers have been trained in the US, in conjunction with arms sales to Taiwan.

  Software programs attempted to address many of the shortcomings in Taiwan's military readiness that were identified in the February 1999 Department of Defense Report to Congress on the cross-strait security situation.

  The report stated that the PLA could attack Taiwan by air, by a blockade or by full-scale military operation. In September 1999, a field study of Taiwan's air defense capabilities by the Pentagon concluded that Taiwan was also vulnerable to missile attack as well.

  A classified report prepared last summer recommended the sale of AEGIS to Taiwan because military experts from the Pentagon were impressed by a field study which showed Taiwan's navy could maintain and operate carriers and submarines manufactured during World War II.

  They concluded that Taiwan would have no difficulty operating and integrating AEGIS.

  The Pentagon also funded some important assessment programs to enhance Taiwan's military capabilities.

  For example, Michael Swain of the Rand company was funded by the Pentagon to study the arms procurement process in Taiwan.

  He highlighted major problems for the modernization of the Taiwanese navy and air force and reminded Taiwan of its vulnerabilities.

  Future alliance

  Both sides also see defense priorities from differing perspectives. Taiwan is still looking forward to the possible sale of AEGIS to counter missile attacks from China; but Mark Stokes, director of the China and Taiwan Desk at the Pentagon has another view.

  "The most important countermeasure is a survivable C4I architecture (Command, Control, Communications, and Computing Functions) and robust passive defenses," Stokes said at the American Enterprise Institute last month.

  As for the future, both US and Taiwan officials agree that an alliance or alliance-like relationship is unlikely in the future.

  Basically, the US wants to help Taiwan to defend itself so US troops will not be involved in a confrontation, or else buy time before they have to respond.

  "The major role of a US presence is deterrence," a Taiwanese official said.

  US officials say that while the Pentagon will continue with its software programs the political environment is getting more complicated, especially after President Chen Shui-bian's election and the prolonged deadlock in cross-strait negotiations.

  With such changes in mind the next round of arms sales talks in Washington should, no doubt, prove challenging.
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