Taipei Times: Do you see any sign of progress for cross-strait dialogue?
Campbell: I was extraordinarily impressed with the dynamics inside Taiwan both on internal and cross-strait issues. There has been real creative thinking in Taiwan about the next few steps in its relationship with the Chinese.
By contrast, at least right now, I do not think there is much room or space for creative thinking in Beijing. If there is, it is not apparent to outsiders. So it is a fairly tough environment and what I am worried about is that our friends in Beijing are getting the wrong message about President Chen Shui-bian (
PHOTO: CHIANG YING-YING, TAIPEI TIMES
However, our friends in China are not taking Chen seriously, which is wrong. Overall, I cannot say right now that I see any signs of optimism that cross-strait dialogue can be resumed shortly. But there are a lot of track two efforts and a lot of good will on our side.
TT: Many people are looking forward to the Beidaihe summer meeting and hope that a consensus on Taiwan can be reached among the Chinese leadership. What do you think?
Campbell: I am interested and anxious about the outcome of Beidaihe, but I think at this time there is a great possibility that the leaders at Beidaihe will take a conservative approach instead of a flexible one. In some respects, we have seen a hardening of positions, but I hope it is only temporary. Once the leaders understand the benefits of engagement, they will recognize the importance of backing off or at least giving Chen a chance. I have not seen any signs of flexibility. But again, we may be the last ones to see that.
There were a few signs that some leaders were talking about going back to the 1992 [`one China' but] "agree to disagree" [about what this means] principle. It seems to me that even by using this as a framework, you would find significant concerns both in Beijing and Taipei in regard to that approach. Of course, it is possible that any kind of framework would raise concerns from some people.
TT: Do you think that Beijing is still suspicious about the intentions of President Chen?
Campbell: Very much so. I do think that Beijing is suspicious about him, which is inappropriate and unfair. I think Beijing has to decide whether they can afford to further isolate or undermine the leadership in Taipei. I think our friends in Beijing should understand that the next few years are the best possible time to make progress, rather than trying to manipulate Taiwan's democracy, which will backfire.
TT: Former Singapore President Lee Kwan-yew (李光耀) has made some comments recently on US cross-strait policy which do not seem to favor the US position and approach. Do you think US cross-strait policy is broadly supported by Asia's neighboring states?
Campbell:There is always a question about US direct involvement in cross-strait issues. Of course the US is involved in discussions and provides the context for peaceful dialogue.
But, it seems to me that it is not in the interset of Taiwan for the US to play an active military role. The best thing we can do is to play an encouraging role, to get both sides together. The direct role would actually undermine our status as guarantor of peace and stability. As I understand, Chen Shui-bian welcomes to the US role and our friends in Taiwan need to understand that there is a downside as well. To tell you the truth, the US policy on the Taiwan Strait is not broadly supported by countries in Asia. This is hard for Americans to understand.
The reality is that many Asians have very complex feelings about the US. On the one hand, they appreciate the fact that the US has played a role in maintaining peace and stability. But on the other hand, they feel they have come between two large, powerful and kind of dangerous countries [the US and China] that could affect their interests.
Overall, the situations they [Asians] want to avoid more than anything else is: number one, a crisis in which the US pulls out of the region, which could involve some horrible defeat; number two, is a conflict between the US and China.
Honestly, if you ask most Asian experts and policy makers privately, the issue they worry about most of the time is the cross-strait situation. So, our policy goal to develpo a strategy which allows us to avoid those negative outcomes is becoming increasingly difficult. My sense is that one of the key components of American foreign policy in the next five years is to get other countries to wade in to both Beijing and Taipei about what their expections are. The real goal of this policy is to see a dialogue instead of a crisis begin. This is about expressing their views, which is quite different from a collective security forum. I think the notion of a collective security forum is still premature.
TT: John Holum, the chief delegate of non-proliferation to Beijing told reporters after a meeting the US would not exclude the possibility of including Taiwan in TMD development. The US has decided to put off the sale of AEGIS to Taiwan this year, what is the real strategic thinking here?
Campbell: The Pentagon is actually going to conduct a serious study. I think basically any decision by the US is based on how China proceeds. If Beijing continues to develop a large number of ballistic missiles, it would be very difficult for the US to turn its back on Taiwan. There are a variety of things we should do now including enhancing air defense abilities, passive defense and pursue excellent diplomacy urging restraint.
TMD is a stalking horse for larger issues and it is all very technical. It is not clear if it is appropriate to Taiwan's conditions. However, it is true that missile increases are substantial and I have not seen any restraint from China yet. In the short term, China absolutely worries me much more than TMD and its political implications in Taiwan. But in the long urn, China cares about TMD more. The situation is getting more complicated and more intensive diplomacy has been involved recently.
TT: In the past two weeks, there has been an internal debate on fighting decisive battles off Taiwan's shores. As a former defense department for many years, do you agree it is an appropriate approach?
Campbell: I do not think it is appropriate for outsiders to offer a strategy or an approach. It is a natural instinct of professional military organizations to try to defend their national interests. Especially when you are facing someone who has a potentially greater missile status, then a more forward looking strategy is the likely result.
The reality is that this sort of situation breeds instability and that is what we worry about in the future, that the potential incentives will change quickly on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. That increases crisis and instability because miscalculation and accident could occur as a result.
We have been arguing for better software connections and a more effective Taiwanese military capability, which we think makes sense in the context of Taiwan's more sophisticated defense. But, it does not necessarily make for an offensive doctrine. However, we appreciate and understand the very difficult challenge, militarily, Taiwan faces. Overall, unless we have a political settlement or progress in the next several months or years, I am afraid the security dynamics will become more dangerous.
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