With the specter of further military intimidation from China unlikely to subside in the near future, scholars said yesterday that an attack by Beijing would be counter-productive since it would likely prompt the US to sell more advanced weapon systems to Taiwan.
"The US has stated very clearly that if China demonstrates a strong intention to use force against Taiwan, it will sell Taiwan not only the state-of -the-art AEGIS-equipped destroyers, but also long-awaited submarines," said Su Chin-chiang (
"If cross-strait tensions drag on, the most likely time for the US to announce the sale of the AEGIS destroyers to Taiwan would be next spring. But the deal will have to proceed cautiously, step by step," he said.
Chang Li-teh (
"The Clinton administration has put off the AEGIS sale to Taiwan, mainly to leave it to the next president for final approval. The deferral also has something to do with the current situation in the Taiwan Strait," Chang said.
Although China's military threats count as a major factor in US decisions regarding weapon sales to Taiwan, both Su and Chang denied there was a necessary cause-and-effect relation between the two.
Chang said he did not believe the White House's postponement of the AEGIS sale to Taiwan came as a result of China's plans to start with its war games against Taiwan before or after the May 20 presidential inauguration.
He said the decision was more likely caused by considerations over the upcoming presidential election in the US.
"It is true that China poses the biggest threat to the security of Taiwan. But we really don't have to over-emphasize the effect of the threat upon Taiwan's weapons acquisitions," Su said.
"China uses the `carrot-and-stick' strategy with regards to its engagement with Taiwan. If we dance with them, our autonomy will be lost," he warned.
"With or without a military threat from China, we have to be steady and firm in our military build-up, especially in our efforts toward technological military innnovations," he said.
One defense official, who declined to be identified, said although there was no absolute connection between China's military threat and Taiwan's weapons acquisitions, Taiwan did get more advanced weapons from the US following the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when China launched missiles into the seas off Keelung and Kaohsiung.
Before the missile crisis in 1996, the official said, the only substantial arms deal between the US and Taiwan was the purchase of 150 F-16 fighter jets in 1992, and of Patriot air defense missiles and E-2T early warning aircraft in 1993.
Only several months after the crisis did the US first announce the sale of 300 M60A3 tanks and subsequently a sale of 1,299 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Taiwan.
In the following three years, the US sold more badly-needed items to Taiwan, including high-tech Harpoon anti-ship missiles, an early warning radar system, nearly 100 helicopters, DMS anti-aircraft missile system, and land-attack guiding equipment for the F-16s, he said.
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The Presidential Office today thanked the US for enacting the Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act, which requires the US Department of State to regularly review and update guidelines governing official US interactions with Taiwan. The new law, signed by US President Donald Trump yesterday, is an amendment to the Taiwan Assurance Act of 2020 focused on reviewing guidelines on US interactions with Taiwan. Previously, the department was required to conduct a one-time review of its guidance governing relations with Taiwan, but under the new bill, the agency must conduct such a review "not less than every five years." It must then submit an updated
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