With barely two months to go until he steps down as president, Lee Teng-hui (
Bearing the mantle of the first native Taiwanese president and with huge charisma and popularity, few dare underestimate Lee's power to rally voters in the March 18 presidential race.
Following a campaign-boosting trip to Kaohsiung City last week, Lee is scheduled today to visit Tainan -- hometown of the family of KMT candidate Lien Chan (連戰) and also of Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) of the DPP -- to put additional effort into further stumping for Lien.
Recent opinion polls indicate Lee may exert an influence on somewhere between 7 and 10 percent of the country's 15 million eligible voters.
In the current campaign climate, any move by Lee, however slight, could affect the entire situation.
Analyst have said Lee's influence stems mainly from his ethnic Taiwanese background, and the traditional respect for authority among many Taiwanese voters.
"As the first [ethnic] Taiwanese president, many elderly native Taiwanese, influenced by Japanese education [during the colonial era] may retain certain sentiments toward Lee,'' said Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍), a political scientist at National Chungcheng University.
Moreover, Lin said, as long as Lee acts in his capacity as president, he can still bring a strong influence to bare over lower class Taiwanese, who would tend to defer to his authority.
"To many local farmers, they would consider that whatever the president has said is always the right course to follow," Lin said.
However, because of Lee's populist credentials, the three candidates need to handle their association with his legacy as gingerly as possible. A tendency in strong favor of, or opposition to Lee may affect Lien Chan, Chen Shui-bian and James Soong's (
"Lee is the catalyst of the `abandon Chen to save Lien' or vice versa effect. If Lee strongly favors Lien's campaign and provides an ethnic spark to the DPP's tinderbox, pro-Lee native voters could well switch sides from Chen to Lien," Lin said.
But as DPP New Wave faction leader Wu Nan-jen (
"The more Lien approaches Lee, the more difficult it will be for him to draw in the anti-Lee mainlander votes within the KMT," Wu said.
At the same time, Soong appears to have chosen to remain low profile, despite furious verbal attacks from Lee.
"Based on opinion polls, between 20 and 30 percent of pro-Lee voters have now thrown their support behind Soong, due to his industrious tenure as Taiwan Provincial Governor," Lin said.
Other observers felt differently, saying that playing the so-called "Lee Teng-hui card" needs to be carefully handled.
"Both Lien and Chen are regarded as native Taiwanese by voters, and therefore Lee faces limitations in terms of mobilizing native Taiwanese votes for Lien. At least it is less significant than how Lee handled [mainlander] Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
Lee's endorsement of Ma was regarded as a turning point in that election.
"Even though Lee pointed his finger at Chen, I believe many voters who have a strong inclination to vote for a native Taiwanese will stay with Chen."
Lin Yu-fang (
"Although Lee contributed a lot to Taiwan's democratic reforms, He also has to take the blame for `black gold' politics, where corruption and organized crime work together," Lin said.
"As the gap between rich and poor grows, many voters will be disappointed and withdraw their support for Lee," Lin said.
SLOW-MOVING STORM: The typhoon has started moving north, but at a very slow pace, adding uncertainty to the extent of its impact on the nation Work and classes have been canceled across the nation today because of Typhoon Krathon, with residents in the south advised to brace for winds that could reach force 17 on the Beaufort scale as the Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecast that the storm would make landfall there. Force 17 wind with speeds of 56.1 to 61.2 meters per second, the highest number on the Beaufort scale, rarely occur and could cause serious damage. Krathon could be the second typhoon to land in southwestern Taiwan, following typhoon Elsie in 1996, CWA records showed. As of 8pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 180km
TYPHOON DAY: Taitung, Pingtung, Tainan, Chiayi, Hualien and Kaohsiung canceled work and classes today. The storm is to start moving north this afternoon The outer rim of Typhoon Krathon made landfall in Taitung County and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島) at about noon yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, adding that the eye of the storm was expected to hit land tomorrow. The CWA at 2:30pm yesterday issued a land alert for Krathon after issuing a sea alert on Sunday. It also expanded the scope of the sea alert to include waters north of Taiwan Strait, in addition to its south, from the Bashi Channel to the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島). As of 6pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 160km south of
STILL DANGEROUS: The typhoon was expected to weaken, but it would still maintain its structure, with high winds and heavy rain, the weather agency said One person had died amid heavy winds and rain brought by Typhoon Krathon, while 70 were injured and two people were unaccounted for, the Central Emergency Operation Center said yesterday, while work and classes have been canceled nationwide today for the second day. The Hualien County Fire Department said that a man in his 70s had fallen to his death at about 11am on Tuesday while trimming a tree at his home in Shoufeng Township (壽豐). Meanwhile, the Yunlin County Fire Department received a report of a person falling into the sea at about 1pm on Tuesday, but had to suspend search-and-rescue
RULES BROKEN: The MAC warned Chinese not to say anything that would be harmful to the autonomous status of Taiwan or undermine its sovereignty A Chinese couple accused of disrupting a pro-democracy event in Taipei organized by Hong Kong residents has been deported, the National Immigration Agency said in a statement yesterday afternoon. A Chinese man, surnamed Yao (姚), and his wife were escorted by immigration officials to Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, where they boarded a flight to China before noon yesterday, the agency said. The agency said that it had annulled the couple’s entry permits, citing alleged contraventions of the Regulations Governing the Approval of Entry of People of the Mainland Area into the Taiwan Area (大陸地區人民進入台灣地區許可辦法). The couple applied to visit a family member in
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