China watchers in Washington say the possibility of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA) becoming law -- after being passed last week by the House of Representatives -- is more dependent on dynamics in the US Senate than the intensity of threats from across the Taiwan Strait.
"It is all in Senator [Trent] Lott's hands, whether or not he will put the bill forward [before the presidential election in Taiwan]," said Stephen Yates, a China policy analyst with the Heritage Foundation in Washington.
For now though that move doesn't seem likely as Senate Majority leader, Trent Lott, has already said the bill would not be considered until after the March 18 presidential election in Taiwan .
Lott would also have to figure out some way to work together with Democrat leader Tom Daschle to find a way around an expected filibuster over the bill in the Senate, Yates said.
Senator Joe Biden, a democrat from Delaware and a few others -- still recovering from so-called "bad timing" on Taiwan's part, for further clarifying its relations with China and defining them as "state-to-state" in nature in July of last year -- are expected to block the bill, he added.
"Timing is important" with the TSEA as well, said Gerrit Gong, director of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. However, "the Senate has not agreed with China on these issues," Gong said.
The trick for US politicians is not to spark any conflict between Taiwan and China and keep from postponing the highly-anticipated entrance of China into the WTO in a US presidential election year.
China's response to the House of Representatives' 340-71 vote approving the security act, while strong, still "fit within the logic of what one would expect," Gong said. "There is a possibility that it could spin out of control but people have learned from past mistakes."
Yates called threats from Beijing just more "Beijing opera," but felt that regardless of the pressure China was pouring on, the bill should move forward for the sake of US security interests and the protection of Taiwan's democracy.
"As long as China has a blank check to threaten Taiwan, then the US should have a blank check to deter that threat to use force," he said.
For others the issue is not as cut and dried.
Michael Pillsbury, a member of the Atlantic Council, a US think tank, and former defense policy planner during the Reagan administration, said he felt the range of implications connected to the issue were so broad that there was no simple way of looking it.
Pillsbury declined to comment on what he expected would happen in the Senate or how strong China's reactions would be.
He would only say that the issue had already become a "polarized and vicious debate."
Caught up in this debate was a recent Pentagon study in which Pillsbury -- who is fluent in Mandarin -- helped translate, titled China Debates the Future Security Environment.
The book draws together the translations of 600 articles written by 200 different authors in China, discussing how China would defeat a superior foe.
Following House passage of the TSEA, the Washington Post ran an article headlined "Pentagon study finds China preparing for war with US," a spin Pillsbury characterized as "unfair."
Such is the confusion that can come with such a complex issue, Pillsbury said.
"To appreciate the significance of the TSEA, one has to know a lot about the prospect of China and its use of force," he said. "If the prospects are low, the TSEA would be a provocation, if the prospects are high it would be a wise step."
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