A senior cross-strait official said yesterday that any attempts by China to influence the March presidential election would be confined to disinformation campaigns and psychological warfare -- not armed conflict.
"The prospects of China attacking our information infrastructure are slim. Even if they were to try to damage our systems, they do not have the capability to precisely target any key information sites," said Mainland Affairs Council vice chairman Lin Chong-pin (
Lin made the remarks at a military conference on the development of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) and its potential impact on the security of Taiwan. The conference was jointly organized by the Ministry of National Defense and a civilian association.
Lin cited Hong Kong newspapers reports over the past few months as examples of China's information operations against Taiwan, which he said were aimed at psychological intimidation.
The reports made references to, among other things, China's plan to bring back into service nearly 100 decommissioned submarines, as well as China's intensification of combat readiness of troops in military regions facing Taiwan.
The submarine reports had an immediate influence upon Taiwan's stock market, which fell over nearly 300 points in a single-day session.
There are reasons for China to refrain from using direct military means against Taiwan as it did in the lead-up to the 1996 presidential election, Lin said, adding that China is now looking hard for a choice among quite limited options.
"China will choose information warfare first, because its domestic economic and political conditions are not as stable as they were during Taiwan's last presidential election," Lin said.
"The US has also openly declared on several occasions that it does not want to see any use of force in the Taiwan Strait before the March presidential election," he said.
Aside from that, Lin said that a power struggle among China's leadership has now surfaced, causing President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) to take special precautions against any deployment of troops.
"Jiang cannot control the military as well as his predecessors, such as Mao Zedung (
Lieutenant Commander Chai Wen-chung (
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