Tue, Dec 21, 1999 page3

• Tang warns of potential China invasion in 2005

  NATIONAL DEFENSE Tang Fei has warned that the mainland will have the capability to launch an invasion of Taiwan by 2005 if the military does not put more effort into establishing adequate countermeasures

  • By Brian Hsu / STAFF REPORTER
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  Commenting on statements made by Chinese president Jiang Zemin (|蕞A民) at yesterday's handover ceremony in Macau, Minister of National Defense Tang Fei (--?/CHINESE>) said Taiwan must be fully prepared to meet a potential military attack by China. He said that China would have the capability to make such an attack by 2005.

  "If Taiwan does not start working on the necessary measures now, it will be too late for it to respond effectively by 2005, when China will have the capability to invade Taiwan," Tang said.

  "The government does not like the idea of spending big money on building a missile defense system. But has no choice now. It must take the initiative in the face of the missile threat from China," he said.

  Tang made the remarks during an interview with a local radio station in which he presented his reaction to Jiang Zemin's statements during the Macau handover ceremony. Jiang was referring to solving the "Taiwan problem" in the same manner as regaining control over Hong Kong and Macau.

  "The Taiwan problem is political in nature. Any possible military action or decision by either side should be preceded by political negotiations between the two sides," Tang said.

  "We have to be aware that China aims to replace Russia as a superpower by its continuous military build-up," he said. "China has to develop in that direction, otherwise it will not be able to survive -- given it has a huge population of 1.2 billion to feed."

  Taiwan does not wish to become caught up in an arms race with China and hopes to solve cross-strait problems through peaceful means, Tang said. China's deployment of short-range ballistic missiles in its southeastern coastal provinces has given Taiwan no alternative but to deploy countermeasures.

  "Taiwan has many cities. Ballistic missiles are a big threat to Taiwan, considering their potential impact on people and property concentrated in metropolitan areas," Tang said.

  Andrew Yang (楊念祖), a military analyst and the secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, said Tang's estimate that China would acquire attack capability against Taiwan by 2005 is based on assessment reports by the US department of defense.

  "The time-frame was worked out according to the Pentagon's predictions as to when the military balance across the Taiwan Strait would be broken [in China's favor]," Yang said.

  "Following the Pentagon's advice, the ROC armed forces have made great efforts to improve their defense capability. But this is not sufficient because China is proceeding with its military build-up at a much faster pace," he said.

  China would be able to achieve military superiority over Taiwan by focusing on enhancing its high-tech warfare capability, Yang said. For instance, its ability to paralyze the C4ISR (communication, command, control, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems of Taiwan's military is growing.

  "Between 2000 and 2001, China plans to launch a number of satellites to establish a communication, reconnaissance and GPS network for its military," Yang said.

  Taiwan is under great pressure to tackle increasing military threats from China, he added, saying pilots of second-generation fighter planes, for instance, are training under a very tight schedule to get up to speed for potential engagements with enemy aircraft.

  "These combat pilots are required to achieve sophisticated operational capability by 2000. Their training schedule is really tight," Yang said. "The consecutive crashes of two Mirage planes in two months indicate that there are some problems which we should pay special attention to."
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