Macedonians are heading to the polls today to elect the successor to President Kiro Gligorov amid a climate of uncertainty as to what the outcome may mean to the country's ties with Taiwan.
The two candidates in the second round of voting are Tito Petkovski of the opposition Social Democratic Alliance (SDSM) and Boris Trajkovski of the governing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE).
Petkovski has vowed to follow the decision of President Gligorov, who chose not to receive Taiwan's ambassador to Macedonia Peter Cheng's (
Trajkovski, who is also the deputy foreign minister, justified diplomatic relations with Taiwan as a means to help revive the Balkan state's economy.
"It was a move to help the economy but the effects were not that positive," Trajkovski said previously.
"I will try my utmost to bring us closer to China but sudden changes in foreign policy are not easy," he said.
Although the president is not granted the power by the Macedonian Constitution to overturn the government's decision to recognize Taiwan, he does, however, have the power to receive or reject credentials of foreign diplomats.
President Gligorov, who is a member of SDSM, refused to recognize diplomatic ties with Taiwan in accordance with his party's stance on the Taiwan issue. The SDSM is Macedonia's former Communist party.
Political analysts, meanwhile, are predicting a close race between the two candidates.
Petkovski led the first round of voting on Oct. 31 with 32.7 percent of votes, Trajkovski trailing with 20.9 percent. In the run-off, however, the picture is not so clear.
"It will be a close race between the two candidates compared to the first round," Ljubomir Frckovski, a law professor at Skopje University told the Taipei Times.
"A lot depends on the Albanian vote: how many of them will be voting and how the votes of the other two candidates who lost the first round will be divided," Frckovski said.
Vasil Tupurkovski of the Democratic Alternative (DA), a member of the governing coalition who has fallen out with VMRO, has called on its supporters to boycott the election.
"This is a desperate move by Tupurkovski but it will not have much practical effect because many public opinion makers and political leaders have spoken out against the boycott," said Frckovski.
The Macedonian Constitution requires a 50 percent voter turnout in the second round or the whole electoral process has to be repeated.
"He is hoping that the number of abstentionists would be high enough that a new election would have to be called. He would then push to be the candidate nominated by the governing coalition," said Arsim Zekolli, a spokesman for the Islamic NGO El Hilal.
Tupurkovski, the architect of ties with Taiwan, was previously assumed to be the joint candidate nominated by the governing coalition.
But VMRO, as the biggest party in the coalition, decided to place its own candidate in the election, a move which only worsened the rift with Tupurkovski.
Regardless of who wins the presidential race, analysts said, political instability is on the rise.
"If Petkovski wins, the opposition will be in permanent conflict with government," said Zekolli.
"If Trajkovski wins, the opposition will attack from all sides because both legislative and executive power would lie with VMRO," he said.
Frckovski said that if SDSM takes the presidency, it would actually give Tupurkovski more leverage to push through the coalition agreement he offered to VMRO last week and stay with the coalition.
"Tupurkovski is likely to stay with the coalition because if he leaves, DA would disappear since it is such a small party," he said.
"He looks like he is giving a lot of public pressure to his coalition partners but he really does not hold any strong cards in the end."
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