Sat, Oct 23, 1999 page4

• Quake relief rattles campaign

  MIXED MESSAGE Legislators from all sides seem to agree that the earthquake will have a major impact on the election, but can't agree who is going to benefit

  • By Erin Prelypchan / STAFF REPORTER
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  Earthquake reconstruction efforts are expected to dominate presidential election campaigning over the next five months, legislators said yesterday.

  But opposition legislators cast doubt on whether Vice President Lien Chan's (3s戰) active role in the reconstruction effort would make him a shoo-in when it came time to vote on March 18 next year.

  "Normally presidential elections include many public policy issues ? However, after the earthquake, people will focus more on the reconstruction process than on other issues. If the work is done well, people will count this to the KMT's credit. And vice versa," KMT legislator Lee Shang-ren (李句??/CHINESE>) told the Taipei Foreign Correspondents' Club yesterday.

  The panel discussion, hosted by the club, was also attended by legislators Shen Fu-hsiung (沉富雄) of the DPP and independent Huang Yi-chao (黃義交).

  All three legislators agreed that KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan has benefited the most from the central government's quake relief efforts, but differed in their opinions of how that advantage would unfold as the election approaches.

  "[Before the quake] the morale on Lien Chan's team was pretty low. The earthquake threw the vice president a very timely life vest," said Huang, who as former Taiwan provincial spokesman worked for now independent presidential candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜).

  Lee agreed with Huang that quake relief efforts had helped Lien's public image.

  "Compared to Soong and [DPP presidential candidate] Chen Shui-bian (3?糮?, Lien is weak in the presidential election because of his political personality and his lack of grassroots popularity. I have to admit that," he said. "After the earthquake ? he showed that he could do something for the grassroots. He changed his image."

  Soong's approval is now on a downward trend, while Lien is holding steady, he said, citing results of a TVBS poll of the public approval of the three main presidential candidates.

  According to the survey, Lien's approval rating rose from 16 percent before the quake to 20 percent last Sunday. Chen's approval dropped from 27 percent to 23 percent, while Soong's went from 36 percent to 34 percent. The percentage of those polled still undecided rose from 20 percent to 21 percent. For each poll, TVBS surveys roughly 1,000 residents aged 20 and over from around Taiwan.

  Huang doubted that, in the end, this would translate into a clear victory for Lien.

  In the long term, Huang said, Soong would benefit from his record in office as Taiwan provincial governor.

  Huang said people would remember the provincial government's disaster relief efforts, such as those following Typhoon Herb in August 1996, which he said were more efficient and effective than those conducted by the central government.

  Shen said the short-term benefits of quake relief for the KMT could end up obscuring what he said were long-term truths about the party.

  "Taiwanese people are very forgetful and very forgiving. They forget that [the KMT] has ruled Taiwan for almost 55 years. And if that were not the case, then the quality of a lot of [buildings] would not be so bad," Shen said.

  When asked how the DPP planned to critique quake relief without being accused of playing disaster politics, Shen the party should take a constructive approach.

  "We hope the reconstruction process is effective and is working and is successful. We cannot peg our success on [the KMT's] failure. That would be really unethical. We wish them luck," Shen said.

  But Shen said the DPP hoped to convince voters of its credibility by reminding them that if the DPP was in charge of reconstruction, it would be cheaper, cleaner and more effective.
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