Analysts say the by-election for Yunlin County commissioner early next month will be a showdown between the KMT and the DPP, as the result could well sway the outcome of the presidential election next year.
Some are calling it a proxy election between the KMT's presidential candidate Lien Chan (
Analysts say this has Soong somewhat sidelined as he has no political equivalent in Yunlin. The situation is not necessarily grim, however, as the former provincial governor could have less to lose.
"The by-election is significant in that it is the first major vote after the 921 earthquake and before the presidential election," said Chen Ming-tung (
"It means the presidential election campaign is to restart formally, and the result of the by-election will be a testing of the waters for the KMT and the DPP," he said.
The by-election was originally scheduled to be held on Oct. 16, but was postponed for three weeks, to Nov. 6, after the quake that killed more than 2,000 people. All the campaigns of the major presidential candidates were also suspended, at least nominally.
The quake has, as it turns out, reversed the fortunes for the candidates for Yunlin County commissioner.
Independent candidate Chang Jung-wei (
Chang has vehemently and repeatedly denied that he has had anything to do with the company, but that has not saved him from falling from first to third place in various opinion polls.
DPP candidate Lin Chung-li (
The turnaround has to a great extent encouraged the DPP and the KMT, both of which hope that a victory at the local level can lead to one on a larger scale. Whoever wins will boost the morale for his party in the presidential race.
"If the KMT's little-known candidate -- who was pushed onto the stage after the party failed to persuade anyone else to run -- does win, then it shows that the old KMT organizational mobilization power still works," Chen from National Taiwan University said.
Another scholar agreed. "It also means that Lien, who is in a similar position in the presidential race, can be salvaged by the party machine's power to mobilize," said Lin Chia-lung (
If the DPP's candidate wins, then the effect on its presidential prospects will be quite similar.
"It will mean that the voice of reform is gathering momentum, as Lin Chung-li, like Chen Shui-bian, has a better image and has distanced himself from `black-gold [money and gangster politics],'" said Chen.
"If the DPP takes away the prize of the by-election, Chen Shui-bian will have a new thrust, and the KMT will be hurt badly," Lin said.
But the by-election may also mean something to Soong.
"The by-election runs a parallel to the presidential race in its candidate structure: two party-endorsed candidates and an independent one," said Lin.
"While Soong has not endorsed the third candidate and has no direct relation to him, if he does win the by-election, then at least it can be reasoned that an independent candidate has a chance in the presidential election," Lin said.
"Especially when both major parties have mobilized almost everything behind their commissioner candidates."
But being pushed off the stage in the by-election could be something threatening to Soong, Chen said.
"As Soong has no active role to play in the by-election, a danger for him is that the two-party duel we will see in this election extends to the presidential one, and puts him on the back burner of the campaign," he said.
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