With the pace of climate change speeding up, extreme weather and other impacts are taking an increasing toll on populations and environments across the globe. Here are some of the developments this year in climate science:
WARMER, FASTER
Global temperatures are not just climbing, they are now climbing faster than before, with new records logged for 2023 and 2024, and at points in 2025. That finding was part of a key study in June that updated baseline data used in the science reports done every few years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The new research shows the average global temperature rising at a rate of 0.27 degrees Celsius each decade — or almost 50 percent faster than in the 1990s and 2000s when the warming rate was around 0.2 C per decade.
Photo: AFP 照片：法新社
Sea levels are rising faster now, too — at about 4.5 millimeters per year over the last decade, compared with 1.85 mm per year measured across the decades since 1900. The world is now on track to cross the 1.5 C warming threshold around 2030, after which scientists warn we will likely trigger catastrophic, irreversible impacts. Already, the world has warmed by 1.3-1.4 C since the pre-industrial era, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
TIPPING POINTS
Warm-water corals are in an almost irreversible die-off from successive marine heatwaves — marking what would be the first so-called climate tipping point, when an environmental system begins to shift into a different state. Researchers in October also warned that the Amazon rainforest could begin to die back and transform into a different ecosystem, such as savannah, if rapid deforestation continues as global warming crosses 1.5 C, which is earlier than previously estimated.
They said meltwater from the thawing ice sheet atop Greenland could help cause an earlier collapse in the ocean current called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, that keeps winters mild in Europe. In Antarctica, where ice sheets are also under threat, scientists are worried about declining sea ice surrounding the southernmost continent. Similar to what is happening in the Arctic, ice loss exposes dark water that can absorb more solar radiation — which amplifies the overall warming trend. It also jeopardizes the growth of phytoplankton that consume much of the world’s CO2.
LAND ON FIRE
Along with heatwaves and drought, wildfires still threaten to be frequent and severe. This year’s State of Wildfires report, led by a group of weather agencies and universities, counted some 3.7 million square kilometers as having burned between March 2024 and February 2025 — an area about the size of India and Norway combined.
That was slightly less than the annual average burned for the last two decades. But the fires produced higher CO2 emissions than before, as more carbon-dense forests burned.
DEADLY HEAT
Researchers are working on ways to assess heat-related health risks and tolls, as UN health and weather agencies estimate about half the world’s population is already struggling. The agencies also estimate worker productivity dropping 2-3 percent for every degree above 20 C, while another study in the Lancet journal in October estimates global losses of more than US$1 trillion from that lost productivity for last year alone.
There is no consistent international definition for a heat-related death, but technology advances are helping scientists to bridge data gaps and compare conditions from place to place. In Europe, one team at the UK’s Imperial College used mortality trends to estimate more than 24,400 deaths this summer related to heat exposure across about 30 percent of the European population. They attributed up to 70 percent of those deaths to climate-fueled heat, based on the same mortality trends applied to a model of Europe without global warming. For last year’s record-hot European summer, another team used computer modeling to examine mortality statistics along with temperature data and health parameters, estimating more than 62,700 heat-related deaths across 32 countries, or about 70 percent of the continent’s population.
SCIENCE UNDER ATTACK
The US administration under President Donald Trump is hoping to slash funding for agencies that collect and monitor climate and weather data, worrying a scientific community that says US leadership will be hard to replace. Trump’s 2026 budget request, yet to be approved by Congress, proposes halving the annual budget for NASA Earth Science to about US$1 billion and cutting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) spending by more than a quarter to US$4.5 billion while eliminating its climate research arm, among other cuts.
Elsewhere, however, public science spending is increasing, with record budgets for science research in China, the UK, Japan and the EU. The EU also last month opened its real-time weather data monitoring to public access.
(Reuters)
氣候變化的速度加快，極端天氣與其他影響對全球人口與環境的衝擊也越來越大。以下是今年氣候科學的一些最新發展：
升溫更快
全球氣溫不僅在上升，且上升的速度也比以往更快。2023年、2024年及2025年部分月份都創下了新高紀錄。6月發表的一項關鍵研究更新了聯合國「政府間氣候變化專門委員會」（IPCC）科學報告所使用的基準資料，顯示全球平均氣溫正以每10年 0.27°C的速度上升——比1990至2000年代約每十年0.2°C的升溫速度快了近五成。
海平面上升的速度也在加快，過去十年每年平均上升約4.5毫米，而自1900年以來的長期平均值僅為每年1.85毫米。依目前趨勢，全球預計將在2030年左右跨越1.5°C的升溫臨界點，科學家警告屆時可能引發災難性、不可逆的影響。根據世界氣象組織資料，全球目前已較工業化前升溫約1.3至1.4°C。
氣候臨界點
熱帶珊瑚因連續的海洋熱浪而出現幾乎不可逆的白化與死亡，這可能成為首個所謂的「氣候臨界點」——當生態系統開始轉變為另一種狀態的時候。研究人員在10月也警告，如果全球暖化突破1.5°C、繼續快速砍伐森林，亞馬遜雨林可能開始枯死並轉變為像稀樹草原那樣的生態系，時間點比原本預期更早。
他們指出，格陵蘭冰蓋融化產生的融水可能導致「大西洋經向翻轉環流」（AMOC）提早解體，該洋流是歐洲冬季氣候溫和的重要因素。科學家也對南極洲四周海冰面積減少深感憂慮。如同北極的情況，冰層消失會使海水暴露出來、吸收更多太陽輻射，進一步加劇整體暖化趨勢；同時，也危及吸收大量二氧化碳的浮游植物生長。
燃燒的陸地
伴隨熱浪與乾旱，野火的頻率與強度仍令人擔憂。今年由多國氣象機構與大學共同發布的《全球野火現況報告》指出，從2024年3月到2025年2月，全球約有370萬平方公里的土地被燒毀，相當於印度加上挪威的總面積。
雖然這略低於過去20年的年均燒毀面積，但由於燃燒的森林碳密度更高，產生的二氧化碳排放量反而比以往更多。
致命高溫
研究人員正努力評估高溫對健康的風險與影響。根據聯合國衛生與氣象機構的估計，全球約有一半人口已在面對與高溫相關的困境。這些機構也指出，氣溫每超過20°C一度，勞動生產力就會下降2%至3%，而《刺胳針》（The Lancet）期刊10月刊登的一項研究估計，僅去年因高溫導致的生產力損失，全球經濟損失就超過1兆美元。
雖然目前各國尚無一致的「高溫致死」定義，但科技進步正幫助科學家縮小資料缺口並比較各地情況。例如在歐洲，英國帝國學院的研究團隊利用死亡率趨勢估計，今年夏天約有2萬4,400人死於熱暴露，涵蓋約三成歐洲人口；他們根據無全球暖化情境的模擬模型推算，約七成的死亡與氣候變遷導致的高溫有關。而另一支研究團隊利用電腦模型分析去年創紀錄的歐洲高溫，推估32國約七成人口受影響，共導致超過6萬2,700起與高溫相關的死亡。
科學被攻擊
美國總統唐納‧川普否認氣候變遷的立場，使美國政府計畫大幅削減收集與監測氣候及天氣數據的機構預算，令科學界深感憂慮，認為美國在此領域的領導地位恐難被取代。川普2026年的預算提案（尚待國會批准）建議將美國太空總署（NASA）地球科學年度預算減半至約10億美元，並削減美國海洋暨大氣總署（NOAA）逾四分之一的經費至45億美元，同時裁撤其氣候研究部門。
不過，其他地區的公共科研投資則持續增加。中國、英國、日本與歐盟均創下歷年最高的科學研究預算。歐盟上個月更開放其即時氣象資料監測系統讓公眾使用。
（台北時報林俐凱編譯）
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