Preventing an extra single degree of heat could make a life-or-death difference in the next few decades for multitudes of people and ecosystems on this fast-warming planet, according to a report by the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued at a meeting in Incheon, South Korea on Sunday. The panel provided little hope the world will rise to the challenge.
In the 728-page document, the UN organization detailed how Earth’s weather, health and ecosystems would be in better shape if the world’s leaders could somehow limit future human-caused warming to just half a degree Celsius from now, instead of the globally agreed-upon goal of 1 degree Celsius. Among other things:
◆ Half as many people would suffer from lack of water.
Photo: AP
照片：美聯社
◆ There would be fewer deaths and illnesses from heat, smog and infectious diseases.
◆ Seas would rise nearly 0.1 meters less.
◆ Half as many vertebrates and plants would lose the majority of their habitats.
Photo: AFP
照片：法新社
◆ There would be substantially fewer heat waves, downpours and droughts.
◆ The West Antarctic ice sheet might not kick into irreversible melting.
◆ And it just may be enough to save most of the world’s coral reefs from dying.
Photo: AFP
照片：法新社
“For some people this is a life-or-death situation without a doubt,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, a lead author on the report.
Limiting warming to half a degree from now means the world can keep “a semblance”’ of the ecosystems we have.
But meeting the more ambitious goal of slightly less warming would require immediate, draconian cuts in emissions of heat-trapping gases and dramatic changes in the energy field. While the UN panel says technically that’s possible, it saw little chance of the needed adjustments happening.
“Global warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate,” the report states.
The pledges nations made in the Paris agreement in 2015 are “clearly insufficient to limit warming to 1.5 in any way,” one of the study’s lead authors, Joerj Roeglj of the Imperial College in London, said.
“We have a monumental task in front of us, but it is not impossible,” Mahowald said. “This is our chance to decide what the world is going to look like.” To limit warming to the lower temperature goal, the world needs “rapid and far-reaching” changes in energy systems, land use, city and industrial design, transportation and building use, the report said. It is up to governments to decide whether those unprecedented changes are acted upon.
(AP)
上週日，曾獲諾貝爾獎的聯合國組織「政府間氣候變遷問題小組」，在南韓仁川的會議上發表一份報告指出：對廣大人群和生態系統而言，要避免快速暖化的地球再升溫一度，在未來的幾十年間會是攸關生死的問題。然而，他們對於世界是否會奮起應對挑戰，並沒有抱什麼希望。
這份七百二十八頁長的報告詳細闡明，若世界各國領導人能夠從現在開始，想辦法將人類未來造成的暖化限制在攝氏零點五度以內，而不只是巴黎協議商定的目標攝氏一度，地球的天氣、健康和生態系統才會有更好的狀態，包括：
◆ 缺水的人會減少一半。
◆ 因炎熱、霧霾和傳染病而造成的的死亡和疾病會減少。
◆ 海平面的上升會減少近零點一公尺。
◆ 失去多數棲地的脊椎動物和植物的數量，將減少一半。
◆ 熱浪、豪雨和乾旱將會大幅減少。
◆ 南極西部冰層可能不會發生無法逆轉的融化。
◆ 這可能足以讓世界上大部分珊瑚礁免於死亡。
這份報告的主要作者、康乃爾大學氣候科學家娜塔莉‧馬宏瓦德說：「對某些人來說，這無疑是生死攸關的局面。」
從現在開始將暖化限制在零點九度，便可讓生態系統在未來仍和我們所熟悉的現狀相似。
但是，若要實現更具雄心的目標──即把暖化再下修一點，就需要立即、嚴格地削減阻礙熱能散失的氣體(即溫室氣體)的排放量，以及在能源方面做出巨大改變。雖然該聯合國小組的專家說這在技術上是可行的，但他們發現這些改變發生的可能性很小。
報告指出，「若按照目前暖化的速度，全球溫度可能會在二○三○年到二○五二年之間，上升攝氏一點五度」。
該報告另一主要作者、倫敦帝國學院的喬利‧羅格利表示，二○一五年巴黎協議中，各國所作出的承諾「明顯不足以將暖化限制在一點五度以內」。
「我們面前有一項巨大的任務，但這並非不可能」，馬宏瓦德說，「這是我們決定世界未來樣貌的機會」。報告中說，為了把限制暖化的目標溫度訂得更低，世界需要在能源系統、土地利用、城市及工業設計、運輸和建築用途上展開「快速而深遠的」變革。是否要採取行動進行這前所未有的變革，端賴各國政府的決定。
（台北時報林俐凱編譯）
A: I’ve been a fan of singer Jay Chou for 24 years, since his debut in 2000. B: But this time, his Taipei Dome concerts have shed light on the issue of ticket scalping. A: Isn’t the law stricter after being amended last year? B: Yeah, ticket scalping is illegal, even if you only raise the price by NT$1 when reselling. A: Why aren’t scalpers afraid of getting caught? Maybe a real-name ticketing system would be better. A: 自從周杰倫2000年出道以來，我都已經追星24年了。 B: 不過這次大巨蛋開唱，他卻引爆黃牛票問題。 A: 去年修法後，法規不是變得比較嚴格？ B: 是啊，就算加價1元轉賣也算違法！ A: 黃牛們怎麼都抓不怕？或許票券「實名制」會更有用。 （By Eddy Chang, Taipei Times／台北時報張聖恩）
When a large group of people struggles to reach a consensus, voting is often used to help make a decision. Surprisingly, humans are not the only animals that exhibit this type of democratic tendency. Several different species of animals demonstrate similar voting behavior. One of the most notable examples of animals engaging in this activity involves African buffalo. Ecologist Herbert Prins first observed herds of African buffalo performing voting behavior in the 1990s. Groups of African buffalo would pause under the intense midday sun and rest until dusk. Prins noticed that some buffalo would periodically stand up and gaze
UK lawmakers voted on Nov. 29 in favor of assisted dying for terminally ill people in England and Wales, advancing the emotive and contentious legislation to the next stage of parliamentary scrutiny. MPs voted by 330 to 275 in support of legalized euthanasia in the first vote on the issue in the House of Commons for nearly a decade. The result came following an emotionally-charged debate that lasted almost five hours in a packed and hushed chamber, and as competing protestors made their voices heard outside parliament. The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill now progresses to the committee
Continued from yesterday（延續自昨日） https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang The African buffalo’s voting system is straightforward. One buffalo initiates the process by getting up, looking intently in a particular direction, and lying back down. If other buffalo agree with this choice, they will mimic this behavior. Conversely, buffalo with a differing preference will face their desired location. Ultimately, the direction favored by the majority dictates where the herd will graze that evening. Not all buffalo are involved in the decision-making process, though. It’s primarily the adult females of the herd that participate. The voting system displays a certain level of fairness because the status of each buffalo in
RSS