Within 50 years, climate change will probably wipe out the world’s most endangered feline, the Iberian lynx, even if the world meets its target for curbing carbon emissions, biologists said.
The gloomy forecast, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, says that without a dramatic shift in conservation strategy, the charismatic little wildcat seems doomed.
The lynx grows to about a meter in length, weighs up to 15kg, and is characterized by its spotted, beige fur, pale yellow eyes and tufted ears and cheeks.
Photo: AFP
照片：法新社
Only around 250 of the animals live in the wild, holed up in two regions in southern Spain, the Sierra Morena and the Donana National Park, according to estimates published last year.
In just half a century, its range has shrunk from 40,600km2 to 1,200km2, driven by efforts to wipe out the rabbit, its main food, as well as poaching and fragmentation of its grassland-and-forest mixed habitat.
The new study models the impact of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns on habitat, rabbits and lynxes. On current trends, the changes will occur too fast for the lynx to adapt, it suggests.
Photo: AFP
照片：法新社
(AFP)
五十年內，氣候變遷可能滅絕全球最瀕危貓科動物「伊比利亞猞猁」，即使全球達到其抑制碳排放的目標亦然，生物學家指出。
這個發表在《自然氣象變遷》期刊的悲觀地預測，若不劇烈改變保育策略，此深具魅力的小型野貓似將面臨滅絕。
伊比利亞猞猁可成長至一米長、十五公斤重，米黃斑點皮毛、淺黃雙眼、簇狀耳朵與腮幫子是其特色。
目前約僅兩百五十頭伊比利亞猞猁存活野地，牠們蟄居於西班牙南部的摩勒納山脈與多南納國家公園，根據去年公布的估計。
僅短短半世紀，在大力趕盡殺絕其主食兔子、盜獵與其草原森林混合棲地零碎化等因素驅使下，牠的分布範圍從四萬零六百平方公里縮減為一千兩百平方公里。
這份新研究模擬出逐漸升高的溫度與不斷變遷的降雨模式對棲地、兔子與猞猁的衝擊。該研究認為，在當前趨勢下，這些改變對猞猁而言來得太快而無法調適。
（法新社／翻譯：魏國金）
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