Mon, Mar 20, 2000 page7

• A message to the KMT: now is the time to reform or die

  With its recent loss in the presidential election, the KMT and its leadership must now determine whether the party will adapt to a new era or become a political dinosaur. How the party, which ruled the island for over 50 years, does this will affect the character of democracy in Taiwan, writes a US political analyst

  • By Larry Diamond
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  The stunning outcome of the recent presidential election was more than a personal victory for DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁).

  It was a victory for a party that had suffered and struggled since its birth in the 1980s (and even well before then) for democracy and human rights in Taiwan.

  It was a victory for the cause of continuing democratic reform in Taiwan, for the quest to root out corruption and organized crime from the country's democratic politics.

  

  It was a near victory for James Soong (宋楚瑜), who also ran as a political reformer pledging to shake up a ruling party establishment that had grown complacent and corrupt after more than half a century in power.

  As much as anything, the election was a humiliating rebuff for the KMT, and for its candidate, Lien Chan (連戰). The KMT made two colossal strategic mistakes in the presidential race, both stemming from its failure to reform itself and to fully embrace its own program of democratizing the politics of the Republic of China.

  First, the party failed to democratize its own internal decision-making, instead maintaining its antiquated quasi-Leninist structures that concentrated power at the top, particularly in the hands of KMT chairman President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝). Rather than allow a democratic primary election contest among all party members to determine the presidential nominee, the party leadership stubbornly insisted on nomination by a convention that ensured control by the party hierarchy.

  Had the KMT agreed to James Soong's demand in 1999 for a party primary to choose the nominee, the party could have remained united and would very likely have avoided political debacle.

  Many party members have concluded that the blame for this strategic blunder should be laid upon two men: Lee Teng-hui and Lien Chan, neither of whom wanted to risk the very substantial possibility that Soong would have won a contested primary.

  The KMT's second strategic blunder was in failing to see that its vaunted political machine and huge financial reserves could not deliver victory in a highly personalized and media-saturated presidential contest. To be sure, there was no chance that Lien Chan could edge out Chen and Soong in terms of charisma. His chances of winning rested in persuading Taiwan's voters that he could govern better, and that Taiwan would be more stable and secure under his leadership as a result.

  Instead of projecting a positive message of governance, the KMT, panicked by Lien's weak showing in the polls, fell back in the final weeks of the campaign on three proven tools of the past: "black," "gold" and fear. Shady political characters -- some widely believed to be leading organized crime figures -- appeared beside Lien to mobilize local factional votes.

  Money poured out of the KMT machine, but the country was so disgusted with "black gold" politics that it was worse than ineffective. It reinforced the image of a party badly in need of reform.

  And finally there were the dire warnings of economic and military disaster if Chen Shui-bian were elected. These warnings probably also backfired.

  In appearing to echo the intimidating tone of the PRC, Lien Chan came off as a weak leader who would not stand up to China's finger-wagging dictators.

  The KMT must now reform itself if it is ever to return as the country's ruling party. It must shake up its local factional structures, purge its ties to political brokers who are linked to organized crime, and back vigorous efforts by the Ministry of Justice and its investigation bureau to put the local mafias out of business. It will also have to let the winds of democracy blow through its own house.

  This will mean vastly reducing the powers of the party chairman and instituting more democratic and transparent methods of decision-making.

  It will also mean taking the initiative to divest itself of its mammoth network of party enterprises.

  Lee Teng-hui's courageous decision to step down as KMT chairman should at least help to stimulate internal democratization of the party.

  These moves will be risky in the short term, particularly to certain individuals who would lose out if internal democratization of the KMT leads to James Soong taking over the party through his greater popular support and political skill. But democratizing reform could facilitate the transformation of the KMT into a modern conservative party capable of winning back public confidence and pride.

  Otherwise, the KMT will cling to its crude power assets in the short-term, in the next elections for the National Assembly and the Legislative Yuan, but at the expense of continued decline as a political party over the medium to long run.

  If the KMT were to decline and disappear as a political party, it would not be the first longstanding ruling party in a democracy to suffer this fate.

  The Christian Democrats vanished in Italy when the "clean hands" political scandal discredited the entire political establishment in the early 1990s.

  In 19th century America, the Whigs ruled and then imploded and vanished.

  Democracy can survive the loss of even a major party; it is, after all, the political equivalent of capitalism, an economic system which, as Joseph Schumpeter noted, remains creative by witnessing the periodic destruction of enterprises that cannot compete.

  But democracy is also stronger when there is a well-institutionalized party system. Institutionalization is a function not only of age, but also of adaptation.

  It is up to the KMT and its leadership now to determine whether the party will adapt or die, and how this will affect the character of democracy in the country.

  Larry Diamond is a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University in the US.
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