Russia has in place about 70 percent of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is sending more battalion tactical groups to the border with its neighbor, two US officials said on Saturday.
In two weeks, the number of tactical groups in the border region has risen from 60 to 83 as of Friday and 14 more are in transit, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.
As for the timing of an invasion, the ground is expected to reach peak freeze on Tuesday next week, allowing for off-road mechanized transit by Russian military units, the officials said.
Photo: AP
Such conditions would continue until the end of next month.
That timeline, and the growing number and capability of Russian forces close to Ukraine, could suggest the window for diplomacy is shutting.
The US officials did not provide evidence to back up their estimates of Russian forces.
As Russia masses more than 100,000 troops near the border, it has said that it is not planning an attack, but could take unspecified military action if its security demands are not met.
Those include a promise that NATO would never admit Ukraine, a demand Washington and NATO have said is unacceptable.
Washington believes Russia might choose options other than a full-scale invasion, including a limited incursion, and does not believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin had made a final decision, the officials said.
However, they said that Putin is putting in place a force that could execute all scenarios.
If Russia were to invade the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, it could fall within a couple of days, the officials said.
A full-scale invasion would cause major casualties, one of the officials said.
Ukraine could suffer 5,000 to 25,000 troop casualties, while Russia’s troop casualties could be between 3,000 and 10,000, and civilian casualties could range from 25,000 to 50,000, according to US estimates, the official said.
Meanwhile, Russia on Saturday sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over its ally Belarus.
The two Tu-22M3 bombers practiced interacting with the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense during a four-hour mission, the Russian Ministry of Defense said.
The flight followed several similar patrols over Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north.
The mission came as the Kremlin has moved troops from Siberia and the Far East to Belarus for sweeping joint drills.
The deployment has added to the Russian military buildup near Ukraine, raising concerns in the West that Moscow could stage an attack on Ukraine from the north.
Kiev, is just 75km from the Belarus border.
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