France yesterday went to the polls for the first round of regional elections that could see Marine Le Pen’s far-right party make gains and step further into the political mainstream.
The election would see new assemblies elected for mainland France’s 13 regions and 96 departments, with Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) tipped to win at least one region for the first time in what would be a major coup.
Le Pen is not standing as a candidate, but she has been campaigning hard ahead of presidential elections next year that surveys show could end up being a close race between her and centrist French President Emmanuel Macron.
Photo: AFP
“What would be great for her [Le Pen], and would spark some momentum in the pre-presidential campaign, would be if the National Rally won a region,” Stephane Zumsteeg from the Ipsos polling firm told reporters.
Although far-right politicians preside over a handful of towns, running a region with a budget of billions of euros and powers over schools, transport and economic development would lend it the sort of legitimacy that Le Pen craves, analysts have said.
The one most likely to tip was the southeastern Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur — home to Marseille, Saint-Tropez and Cannes — where the RN is fronted by Thierry Mariani, a former minister who defected from the center-right Republicans party.
The election is to be held over two consecutive Sundays, with a second run-off vote on Sunday necessary unless parties win more than 50 percent in the first round.
Analysts have said that results in many regions would be driven by local dynamics and a high abstention rate, limiting how much they should be seen as indicators for the larger political picture in France.
However, the outcome would inevitably shape the narrative in the coming weeks, particularly with regard to the strength and electability of Le Pen, as well as the state of Macron’s enfeebled party, the Republic on the Move.
“These elections are never good for the party in power. You always get it in the neck,” a minister told reporters last month.
Predictions are difficult because of the two-stage electoral system and the impact of tactical voting, which usually sees mainstream parties gang up to keep the far-right out of power.
A survey by the Ipsos and Sopra Steria groups last week showed RN candidates leading in six of the 13 mainland regions in the first round, meaning that results last night might suggest sweeping dominance for the party.
However, because of anti-RN tactical voting, they could end up losing all of the run-off votes — as they did at the time of the last elections in 2015.
A possible record abstention rate of up to 60 percent is also seen as a major factor.
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