Scientists said that half of the world’s sandy beaches could disappear by the end of the century if climate change continues unchecked.
Researchers at the EU’s Joint Research Center in Ispra, Italy, used satellite images to track the way beaches have changed over the past 30 years and simulated how global warming might affect them.
“What we find is that by the end of the century around half of the beaches in the world will experience erosion that is more than 100m,” Michalis Vousdoukas said. “It’s likely that they will be lost.”
Photo: Reuters
The study, published on Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that the extent to which beaches are at risk depends on how much average global temperatures increase by the year 2100.
Greater temperature increases mean more sea level rise and more violent storms in some regions, causing more beaches to vanish beneath the waves.
“The projected shoreline changes will substantially impact the shape of the world’s coastline,” more than a third of which is sandy beach, the authors wrote.
Beaches are valuable for recreation, tourism and wildlife, while also providing a natural barrier that protects coastal communities from waves and storms.
Many coastal areas, including beaches, are heavily affected by human activity, such as seashore construction and inland dams, which reduce the amount of ocean silt, which is crucial for beach recovery.
Some countries will be more affected than others, the researchers said.
The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau in west Africa could lose more than 60 percent of their beaches, while predictions for Pakistan, the island of Jersey in the English Channel and the Comoros islands are similarly dire.
Australia would be hardest-hit in terms of total beach coastline lost, with more than 11,400km at risk. The US, Canada, Mexico, China, Russia, Argentina and Chile would also lose thousands of kilometers of beaches, the study showed.
Andres Payo, an expert on coastal hazards and resilience at the British Geological Survey, said that while the study’s methods were sound, its claims should be treated with caution.
“There are many assumptions and generalizations that could change the outcome of the analysis both qualitatively and quantitatively,” said Payo, who was not involved in the study.
However, Vousdoukas said the amount of beach loss estimated by his team was “a bit conservative” and could be higher.
The group considered two warming scenarios — one in which average global temperatures rise by 2.4°C by the end of the century and another that predicts an increase twice as high.
The Paris climate accord’s most ambitious target, of capping warming at 1.5°C, was not considered because scientists consider it unlikely to be achieved, Vousdoukas said.
The study’s authors calculated that up to 40 percent of shoreline retreat could be prevented by reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change, but said that large and growing populations living along the coast would also need to be protected through other measures.
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