US President Barack Obama could face questions about US arms sales to Taiwan when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Beijing next week after the conclusion of the APEC summit.
Washington sources say the subject is most likely to be raised during bilateral discussions on the delicate military-to-military relationship between the US and China.
Taiwan and its nine-in-one elections on Nov. 29 will probably also be discussed in connection with the unrest in Hong Kong, sources say.
At a briefing on Monday last week regarding Obama’s trip, Patrick Cronin, director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington (CNAS), said he did not see a strategic agreement between the US and China emerging from the discussions.
He said there are some areas where the two sides would disagree, such as what would happen if there is a “flare-up” in Taiwan or if “Hong Kong flares up.”
Obama is to fly to Beijing on Monday next week for the APEC leaders’ meeting, followed by a day-and-a-half of talks with Xi.
He then heads to Myanmar for the US-ASEAN dialogue and the East Asia Summit leaders’ meeting and will attend the G20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, before returning to Washington.
CNAS senior fellow Ely Ratner told last week’s briefing that by the end of the trip, Obama would likely have addressed “pretty much every foreign policy issue the administration deals with.”
The meetings in Beijing are to provide “a huge moment for Xi Jinping to try to cast himself as a global and regional leader,” Ratner said.
Very intense negotiations are going on right now over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and these would likely be “swirling around” the APEC summit because all 12 members of the TPP talks are also members of APEC, he said.
On the fringes of the APEC meetings, Taiwan is expected to lobby for early TPP membership.
Ratner said that Obama will want to demonstrate in Beijing that he is making progress in the US’ relationship with China, while advancing its economic interests and staying true to US values.
Other experts said that contentious issues such as arms sales to Taiwan, Hong Kong and human rights would be discussed in small private meetings away from the main APEC event.
Cronin said the meetings would provide an opportunity for the Obama administration to link the president’s legacy — which includes the “rebalance” to the Asia-Pacific region — with the long-term strategic interests of the US.
Republican Party national security consultant Elbridge Colby said Obama needs to take a tougher line toward China’s growing assertiveness, particularly in private meetings, where he should “push back.”
He said that at Obama’s last meeting with Xi, the US president had avoided hot-button issues.
Over the past few weeks, White House sources said they expect progress on Washington’s military-to-military relationship with Beijing and that there has been talk of establishing an open telephone line between the Pentagon and China’s People’s Liberation Army.
This has led some supporters of Taiwan in Washington to worry that Taiwan’s interests could be sacrificed if Beijing offers a tradeoff, such as better military-to-military relations, in return for cuts in arms sales to Taipei.
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