Independent Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) recent remarks about former president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chiayi mayoral candidate Chen Yi-chen (陳以真) might cost him some support, a forecasting company said yesterday, but he still has a “higher price” on his election chances.
Xfuture.org, also known as the Exchange of Future Events, yesterday offered its predictions for the Nov. 29 nine-in-one local elections. It bases its predictions on “prediction markets,” which entails “collecting effective information through a futures or stock trading mechanism.”
Ko has seen his lead erode a bit following his praise for Chiang’s rule and remarks that Chen was better suited to being a receptionist or appearing in tourism advertisements than to being a mayor, Xfuture chief executive officer Anson Hung (洪耀南) said.
“It is rather a growth in the predicted percentage of the vote — from 45 percent to 50 percent — on KMT mayoral candidate Sean Lien’s (連勝文) part than a decrease for Ko, whose percentage remains about the same at 47.8 percent,” Hung said. “However, Ko still commands a higher price for the prediction of his being elected, with 57.33 percent, as opposed to Lien’s 47.12 percent.”
“While the prediction for the chance of getting elected can be compared to who the traders [voters] think will win, the predicted vote percentage is like favorability ratings,” he added.
The exchange showed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leading in nine of the 22 cities and counties, and the KMT in 10.
The company said 10 key counties and cities will indicate how the two parties fare in the election: Taipei, Keelung, Greater Taichung, Chiayi and the counties of Hualien, Hsinchu, Penghu, Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin.
Taipei and Greater Taichung are the two most critical battlefields, the company said.
The DPP is not running its own candidates in Taipei, Hualien and Hsinchu, and independent candidates running against the KMT’s nominees might have a chance of getting elected.
Greater Taichung as well as Keelung and Penghu counties are currently KMT-run, but the DPP’s candidates are leading in the surveys, while the races in KMT-run Chiayi, Changhua and Nantou are close between the KMT’s and the DPP’s candidates.
DPP Taichung candidate Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) has a higher chance of winning than KMT Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強), Hung said.
“While Hu’s ‘price’ has seen an uptick, the support he has so far received has not achieved the baseline of 45 percent that is traditionally believed to be sustained by KMT core supporters in Taichung,” Hung said.
DPP-run Yunlin is seeing a proxy war between former KMT commissioner Chang Jung-wei (張榮味) and County Commissioner Su Chi-fen (蘇治芬).
Soochow University political scientist Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) said there are places where the results “could hardly be altered even by a gun shot,” because the incumbents face little challenge, such as New Taipei City and Greater Tainan.
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said it expected to issue a sea warning for Typhoon Fung-Wong tomorrow, which it said would possibly make landfall near central Taiwan. As of 2am yesterday, Fung-Wong was about 1,760km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point, moving west-northwest at 26kph. It is forecast to reach Luzon in the northern Philippines by tomorrow, the CWA said. After entering the South China Sea, Typhoon Fung-Wong is likely to turn northward toward Taiwan, CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張峻堯) said, adding that it would likely make landfall near central Taiwan. The CWA expects to issue a land
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday said it is expected to issue a sea warning for Typhoon Fung-wong this afternoon and a land warning tomorrow. As of 1pm, the storm was about 1,070km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point, and was moving west-northwest at 28 to 32kph, according to CWA data. The storm had a radius of 250km, with maximum sustained winds of 173kph and gusts reaching 209kph, the CWA added. The storm is forecast to pass near Luzon in the Philippines before entering the South China Sea and potentially turning northward toward Taiwan, the CWA said. CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張峻堯) said
PREPARATION: Ferry lines and flights were canceled ahead of only the second storm to hit the nation in November, while many areas canceled classes and work Authorities yesterday evacuated more than 3,000 people ahead of approaching Tropical Storm Fung-wong, which is expected to make landfall between Kaohsiung and Pingtung County this evening. Fung-wong was yesterday morning downgraded from a typhoon to a tropical storm as it approached the nation’s southwest coast, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, as it issued a land alert for the storm. The alert applies to residents in Tainan, Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Taitung counties, and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春). As of press time last night, Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Yilan, Miaoli, Changhua, Yunlin, Pingtung and Penghu counties, as well as Chiayi city and county had
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday issued a sea alert for Typhoon Fung-wong (鳳凰) as it threatened vessels operating in waters off the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島), the Bashi Channel and south of the Taiwan Strait. A land alert is expected to be announced some time between late last night and early this morning, the CWA said. As of press time last night, Taoyuan, as well as Yilan, Hualien and Penghu counties had declared today a typhoon day, canceling work and classes. Except for a few select districts in Taipei and New Taipei City, all other areas and city
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