The economy may grow by less than 2 percent for a second consecutive year after the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) yesterday cut its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.74 percent.
The agency’s latest forecast is 0.57 percentage points lower than the forecast of 2.31 percent it made in August and is the lowest among domestic economic institutes.
“Current economic sentiment in Taiwan is quite sluggish and it lacks a major growth driver,” DGBAS statistics division director Tsai Hung-kun (蔡鴻坤) told a press conference.
Worse-than-expected economic performance in the fourth quarter, mainly due to deteriorating exports, was the major factor that led the DGBAS to revise downward its full-year GDP growth forecast.
Exports in the fourth quarter may slow to US$75.9 billion, a decrease of 2.03 percent from the same period last year, which means full-year exports would only rise by 0.44 percent from last year to US$302.5 billion, the agency said in its quarterly report.
This led to the DGBAS forecasting 1.22 percent year-on-year expansion for the economy in the fourth quarter, down from the 2.61 percent forecast it made in August. That would also make for the slowest GDP quarterly growth since the second quarter last year.
DGBAS section chief Joshua Gau (高志祥) expressed concern that the headwinds facing the export sector may become a long-term issue, as China starts to manufacture more products locally, boosting domestic supply and dragging down demand for Taiwanese goods.
In addition, newly added production in the local manufacturing sector has shown a significant decline over the past few years as Taiwan plays a less important role in the global supply chain for electronics products, Gau said.
Private investment is expected to expand 5.32 percent from a year ago, the report showed.
However, “other than the semiconductor sector, other Taiwanese industries still lack investment momentum,” Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics Minister Shih Su-mei (石素梅) said.
Private consumption is expected to increase 1.46 percent this year, the report showed.
The agency also cut its forecast for economic growth next year to 2.59 percent from the 3.37 percent it had previously forecast, with exports, private consumption and private investment expected to rise 3.07 percent, 1.72 percent and 4.37 percent from this year respectively.
The DGBAS said that boosting private consumption would be a challenge because of a limited increase in average salary.
Inflation could surge 1.21 percent annually next year, following a mild 0.94 percent increase this year, the report said.
WHEELING AND DEALING? Hou You-yi, Ko Wen-je, Eric Chu and Ma Ying-jeou are under investigation for allegedly offering bribes for the other side to drop out of the race Taipei prosecutors have started an investigation into allegations that four top politicians involved in attempts to form a “blue-white” presidential ticket have contravened election regulations. Listed as defendants are Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the KMT and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲). The case stemmed from judicial complaints filed last month with the Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office alleging that the KMT (blue) and the TPP (white) had engaged in bribery by offering money or other enticements
COUNTER DISINFORMATION: More engagement and media literacy are needed to push back against misinformation and claims that the US is an unreliable partner, the AIT director said The US is “confident” that Taiwan does not face an imminent threat of a Chinese invasion, American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Sandra Oudkirk told a US public radio show, adding that Washington remains committed to defensively arming the nation. She made the comment during an interview on All Things Considered, broadcast on Friday on US-based National Public Radio. “There is an important distinction between making plans and training troops, and getting ready to do something,” Oudkirk said, on whether she thinks Beijing plans to attack Taiwan in the near future. Chinese officials have told Washington that “their preference is for peaceful reunification,
EXPOSED: Some Taipei wardens reported joining the trips out of peer pressure, while others said they were relieved it was made public so they could refuse, a city councilor said Nearly 30 percent of Taipei borough wardens have joined group tours to China that were partially funded by the Chinese government, leading prosecutors probing potential Chinese interference in January’s elections to question local officials, an investigation showed. Democratic Progressive Party Taipei City councilors Chien Shu-pei (簡舒培) and Chen E-jun (陳怡君) have reported cases of Taipei borough wardens inviting residents to join inexpensive privately organized group tours to China that were partially funded by the Chinese government. The six-day trips reportedly cost NT$10,000 to NT$15,000, the councilors said. An investigation by the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) showed that nearly 30 percent
ELIGIBLE FOR JANUARY: All presidential candidates and their running mates meet the requirements to run for office, and none hold dual citizenship, the CEC said Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Legislator and vice presidential candidate Cynthia Wu (吳欣盈) is working with the Central Election Commission (CEC) to resolve issues with her financial disclosure statement, a spokesman for the candidate said yesterday, after the commission published the statements of all three presidential candidates and their running mates, while confirming their eligibility to run in the Jan. 13 election. Wu’s office spokesman, Chen Yu-cheng (陳宥丞), said the candidate encountered unforeseen difficulties disclosing her husband’s finances due to being suddenly thrust into the campaign. She is also the first vice presidential nominee to have a foreign spouse, complicating the reporting of
RSS