The government yesterday cut its GDP growth forecast for Taiwan to 2.4 percent this year, down from its February estimate of 3.59 percent, citing weaker-than-expected momentum in exports and private consumption.
While the nation’s economy has been losing momentum since the second half of last year, economic recovery is broadly on track, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said.
In line with the global trend, the nation’s economy is “stuck in a soft expansion,” DGBAS section chief Joshua Gau (高志祥) told a press conference, citing forecasts made by IHS Global Insight earlier this month.
Expansion in exports is expected to stand at 2.82 percent this year, far from the 6.21 percent forecast in February, the DGBAS said in its report.
As a result, the DGBAS yesterday revised downward the nation’s output growth forecast to 5.15 percent this year, down from 6.35 percent estimated in February, which drags down the full-year GDP growth estimate by 0.89 percentage points.
The DGBAS also cut its growth forecast for private consumption this year to 1.46 percent from 1.86 percent, because of stagnant growth in real wages and uncertainties about pension reforms.
However, private investment is likely to increase by 7.21 percent this year from last year, on the back of strong investment in capital equipment by the nation’s semiconductor and telecoms sectors, the report said.
DGBAS deputy director Beatrice Tsai (蔡美娜) said the economy would grow 1.98 percent this quarter after expanding 1.67 percent last quarter.
The economy is expected to grow by 2.86 percent next quarter and 2.98 percent in the final quarter of the year, she said.
Fubon Financial Holding Co (富邦金控) chief economist Rick Lo (羅瑋) said he is not pessimistic about Taiwan’s economy this year, expecting GDP to grow about 3 percent.
Lo said the momentum of private consumption in Taiwan may further recover this year on the back of improving performance on the securities market, given that the government is proposing to revise the controversial capital gains tax on securities investments.
Moreover, the government’s plan to provide cash subsidies to consumers in purchasing certain home appliances could boost near-term consumption, he said.
However, slowing economic momentum in China may drag Taiwan’s output down this year, with the US expected to be the most important market to boost Taiwan’s exports, he added.
TYPHOON: The storm’s path indicates a high possibility of Krathon making landfall in Pingtung County, depending on when the storm turns north, the CWA said Typhoon Krathon is strengthening and is more likely to make landfall in Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said in a forecast released yesterday afternoon. As of 2pm yesterday, the CWA’s updated sea warning for Krathon showed that the storm was about 430km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point. It was moving in west-northwest at 9kph, with maximum sustained winds of 119kph and gusts of up to 155kph, CWA data showed. Krathon is expected to move further west before turning north tomorrow, CWA forecaster Wu Wan-hua (伍婉華) said. The CWA’s latest forecast and other countries’ projections of the storm’s path indicate a higher
SLOW-MOVING STORM: The typhoon has started moving north, but at a very slow pace, adding uncertainty to the extent of its impact on the nation Work and classes have been canceled across the nation today because of Typhoon Krathon, with residents in the south advised to brace for winds that could reach force 17 on the Beaufort scale as the Central Weather Administration (CWA) forecast that the storm would make landfall there. Force 17 wind with speeds of 56.1 to 61.2 meters per second, the highest number on the Beaufort scale, rarely occur and could cause serious damage. Krathon could be the second typhoon to land in southwestern Taiwan, following typhoon Elsie in 1996, CWA records showed. As of 8pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 180km
TYPHOON DAY: Taitung, Pingtung, Tainan, Chiayi, Hualien and Kaohsiung canceled work and classes today. The storm is to start moving north this afternoon The outer rim of Typhoon Krathon made landfall in Taitung County and the Hengchun Peninsula (恆春半島) at about noon yesterday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said, adding that the eye of the storm was expected to hit land tomorrow. The CWA at 2:30pm yesterday issued a land alert for Krathon after issuing a sea alert on Sunday. It also expanded the scope of the sea alert to include waters north of Taiwan Strait, in addition to its south, from the Bashi Channel to the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島). As of 6pm yesterday, the typhoon’s center was 160km south of
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) is set to issue sea and land warnings for Tropical Storm Krathon as projections showed that the tropical storm could strengthen into a typhoon as it approaches Taiwan proper, the CWA said yesterday. The sea warning is scheduled to take effect this morning and the land warning this evening, it said. The storm formed yesterday morning and in the evening reached a point 620 nautical miles (1,148km) southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan proper’s southernmost point, moving west-southwest at 4 kph as it strengthened, the CWA said. Its radius measured between 220km and 250km, it added. Krathon is projected
RSS