Pakistan’s government scrambled yesterday to survive after losing its majority, flinging the nuclear-armed state into a political crisis threatening to destabilize the US ally in the war on al-Qaeda.
The decision by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) to quit leaves Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s coalition hanging by a thread at a time of economic meltdown and heavy US pressure to do more to crack down on militants.
No civilian government in Pakistan has ever managed to complete a full term in office and with Gilani controlling about 160 seats in the 342-member National Assembly, horse trading for new allies began immediately.
Although the prime minister is not bound to seek a vote of confidence in parliament, he could face serious problems in getting legislation passed and any failure to get the budget adopted in June could force snap elections.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUIF), the prominent religious party that first shook the coalition by withdrawing its seven lawmakers from government last month after Gilani sacked one of its ministers, called again for his resignation.
“The prime minister has lost his majority. It’s better for him now to resign with all his Cabinet,” JUIF secretary-general Abdul Ghafoor Haideri said.
For the moment, Gilani has tried to appear calm, telling journalists: “The government is not going to fall.”
The News newspaper compared his optimism to British prime minister James Callaghan in 1979, shortly before he lost early elections, but most analysts believe the Pakistani government has time to play with.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is chairman of the main ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and spokesman Farhatullah Babar told reporters that the president was still confident “that the problem will be solved and MQM’s concerns addressed.”
The MQM said its 25 lawmakers moved onto the opposition benches in protest at the government’s 9 percent increase in petroleum prices, inflation and record on corruption, but has left open the door to its future support.
“We’ll support the government’s positive steps while sitting in the opposition and will openly oppose the anti-people decisions,” the party said.
MQM also remains a PPP coalition partner in the southern province of Sindh, of which Pakistan’s largest city of Karachi is the capital and where the party’s support is rooted in the Urdu-speaking majority.
Its dispute with the PPP has also been colored by an explosion in political violence in Karachi, which one prominent PPP member blamed publicly on MQM supporters and tax reforms demanded by the IMF.
Pakistan has managed to stave off bankruptcy thanks to a 2008 IMF rescue package, but after catastrophic flooding last summer, there are fears that Islamabad cannot meet key targets on inflation and budget deficit levels.
From the eastern city of Lahore, the Pakistan Muslim League Qaid-e-Azam, whose 50 lawmakers could prop up the government, said the prime minister had requested a meeting with party leader Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain.
“We haven’t taken any decisions yet. When the prime minister comes, after that we will take a decision,” Hussain told reporters.
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